Interconnected nodes of smaller countries influencing the paths of larger nations.

The Silent Players: How Smaller Countries are Quietly Reshaping Global Power

Lena Kashyap in Global Affairs August 2025 • 4 min read.

"Forget the US vs. China showdown. The real game is in how smaller nations are influencing the world stage – and what it means for you."

In today's headlines, it's all about the major players: the United States, China, and perhaps a few other global giants. But what about the smaller countries? Are they simply pawns in a larger game, or do they possess a hidden power to influence international affairs? New research suggests that these so-called 'non-superpowers' are far more influential than we might think.

A recent study delves into the dynamics of global power, proposing a game-theoretic model to explore how these nations, with their diverse preferences and resources, affect the competition between superpowers. The findings challenge conventional wisdom, revealing that these smaller players aren't just passive bystanders; they actively shape the behavior of major powers and, ultimately, the global landscape.

This article explores how these non-superpowers – heterogeneous in preferences and endowments – form coalitions and shape the competition between two superpowers who provide club goods sequentially. This has an externality effect as when a country joins a club, it reduces the cost for everyone because members share the cost.

The Power of the Underdog: How Non-Superpowers Wield Influence

Interconnected nodes of smaller countries influencing the paths of larger nations.

The study models a scenario where two superpowers compete for influence by offering 'club goods' – benefits that are shared among members. However, the key to their success lies in attracting non-superpowers to join their respective clubs. These smaller nations, each with their unique characteristics and priorities, form coalitions, and their decisions significantly impact the superpowers' strategies.

The study uses game theory to model how non-superpowers influence the competitive dynamic between global powers. The results suggests three key findings:

Unipolar Power: Status-quo powers that compromise with non-superpowers are more likely to create a unipolar world, deterring challenges, due to close ties and institutional alignment.
Strategic Compromise: Superpowers compromise with non-superpowers to establish a club, but when countries depend more on it, it compromises less while its club size increases.
Endowment Growth: Increased endowments of superpowers attract new members, because the cost of joining their club decreases.

This model challenges the assumption that superpowers unilaterally dictate international relations. Instead, it highlights the agency of smaller nations and their ability to shape the global order through strategic alliances and calculated decisions.

What This Means for the Future of Global Politics

The study's findings carry significant implications for understanding the evolving dynamics of global politics. As non-superpowers become increasingly assertive and strategically savvy, their influence on the international stage is likely to grow. This suggests that future analyses of global power must move beyond a purely superpower-centric perspective and consider the agency and impact of these often-overlooked players. This will mean the creation of multi-polar world.

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This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2209.10206,

Title: The Power Of Non-Superpowers

Subject: econ.gn q-fin.ec

Authors: Tomoo Kikuchi, Shuige Liu

Published: 21-09-2022

Everything You Need To Know

How do non-superpowers impact the competition between superpowers?

The research uses a game-theoretic model to demonstrate how non-superpowers, with their varied preferences and resources, influence the competition between superpowers. The model shows how these smaller nations form coalitions and their decisions impact the strategies of the superpowers. The superpowers compete for influence by providing club goods. The non-superpowers' choices, such as joining a club, significantly alter the game's dynamics, ultimately affecting the global landscape and the behavior of major powers.

What are 'club goods' in the context of this research, and why are they important?

In this research, 'club goods' represent the benefits that superpowers offer to attract non-superpowers to join their 'clubs.' These goods are shared among the club members. The superpowers compete to provide these club goods. The attractiveness of a club and the cost to join a club depends on the 'endowments' of the superpower. The strategic offering of club goods is a primary tool used by superpowers to gain influence and shape the global order.

What are the key findings about unipolar power as highlighted by the study?

The study reveals that superpowers that compromise with non-superpowers are more likely to create a unipolar world. This outcome is because of the close ties and institutional alignment fostered between the superpower and the non-superpowers. This strategic alignment deters challenges to the superpower's influence, solidifying its dominant position on the global stage.

How does strategic compromise by superpowers affect their interactions with non-superpowers?

The study indicates that superpowers engage in strategic compromise with non-superpowers to establish and grow their clubs. However, the level of compromise decreases as non-superpowers become more dependent on the club. Simultaneously, the size of the club increases. This dynamic showcases the complex interplay between superpowers and non-superpowers.

How do increased endowments of superpowers influence the global landscape, according to the research?

Increased endowments of superpowers attract new members because the cost of joining their club decreases. This suggests that the resources and capabilities of superpowers play a vital role in shaping the global order. Superpowers with greater endowments can offer more attractive benefits, leading to a larger and more influential club. This dynamic underscores the significance of economic and strategic resources in global power competition.