Global powers influenced by smaller nations in a tug-of-war.

Non-Superpowers: The Unexpected Kingmakers of Global Influence

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Elliot Brynn in Global Affairs August 2025 • 4 min read.

"Discover how countries with less individual power are reshaping international competition, turning traditional dominance on its head."


In today's global landscape, the dynamics of international relations are rapidly evolving. While superpowers have traditionally dominated the world stage, a new paradigm is emerging where non-superpowers wield significant influence. These nations, through their strategic choices and alliances, are reshaping the competitive landscape and influencing the behavior of major global players.

A recent game-theoretic model sheds light on this phenomenon, revealing how non-superpowers with diverse preferences and resources impact the competition between superpowers. By forming coalitions and making strategic decisions, these countries can alter the balance of power and shape the spheres of influence traditionally held by more dominant nations.

This article delves into the mechanics of this evolving global order, examining how non-superpowers are becoming critical players in international relations. It draws insights from the aforementioned model, alongside real-world examples, to illustrate how these nations are rewriting the rules of engagement on the world stage.

The Power of Coalitions: How Alliances are Shifting the Global Order

Global powers influenced by smaller nations in a tug-of-war.

The cornerstone of non-superpower influence lies in their ability to form coalitions. These alliances, often driven by shared interests or strategic advantages, create a collective force that can sway the decisions and actions of superpowers. Understanding how these coalitions form and operate is crucial to grasping the changing dynamics of global influence.

A game-theoretic model helps to illustrate this dynamic. In this model, two superpowers compete for influence by offering 'club goods' – benefits that are exclusive to members of their respective alliances. The utility derived from these goods depends on which non-superpowers choose to join which 'club,' creating a competitive environment where smaller nations have leverage.

  • Strategic Advantage: Coalitions allow non-superpowers to pool their resources, amplify their voices, and negotiate more effectively with larger nations.
  • Economic Interdependence: By aligning economically, non-superpowers can create trade blocs and partnerships that reduce their dependence on individual superpowers.
  • Geopolitical Sway: Coalitions can exert pressure on superpowers by influencing international norms, shaping diplomatic agendas, and challenging existing power structures.
This framework highlights a critical point: the characteristics and preferences of non-superpowers directly influence the behavior of superpowers. The size and composition of these coalitions can determine which superpower gains the upper hand, leading to a more distributed and less predictable world order.

The Future of Global Influence: A More Distributed World?

The rise of non-superpower influence suggests a future where global power is more diffused and less concentrated in the hands of a few dominant nations. This evolving landscape presents both opportunities and challenges. It requires a shift in perspective, from viewing international relations as a top-down hierarchy to recognizing the agency and impact of smaller players. As non-superpowers continue to forge their own paths and form strategic alliances, they will play an increasingly crucial role in shaping the global order and defining the future of international relations. Understanding these dynamics is essential for navigating the complexities of the 21st century and building a more balanced and equitable world.

About this Article -

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Everything You Need To Know

1

How are countries without traditional superpower status influencing global competition?

Countries lacking individual superpower status are impacting global competition by strategically forming coalitions and alliances. These non-superpowers pool resources, amplify their influence, and negotiate more effectively with larger nations. Their collective actions can sway the decisions and behaviors of superpowers, leading to shifts in the balance of power.

2

What role do 'club goods' play in the competition between superpowers and non-superpowers?

In the game-theoretic model described, superpowers compete for influence by offering 'club goods,' which are exclusive benefits to members of their alliances. Non-superpowers decide which 'club' to join, and the utility they derive from these goods influences which superpower gains an advantage. This competition for allegiance gives non-superpowers significant leverage in shaping international relations.

3

What are some examples of how coalitions formed by non-superpowers exert pressure on superpowers?

Coalitions of non-superpowers can exert pressure on superpowers in several ways: by influencing international norms, shaping diplomatic agendas, and challenging existing power structures. Economic interdependence, achieved through trade blocs and partnerships, reduces reliance on individual superpowers and further strengthens the coalition's position. The collective force of these actions can significantly alter the global landscape.

4

What does the rise of non-superpower influence imply for the future of global power distribution?

The increasing influence of non-superpowers suggests a future where global power is more diffused, shifting away from concentration in the hands of a few dominant nations. This evolving landscape necessitates a shift in perspective, recognizing the agency and impact of smaller players. As these nations continue to forge alliances, their role in shaping the global order and defining international relations will become increasingly crucial.

5

How does the game-theoretic model explain the impact of non-superpowers on the competition between superpowers?

The game-theoretic model illustrates how the preferences and resources of non-superpowers directly influence the behavior of superpowers. Two superpowers compete by offering 'club goods' to attract non-superpowers into their alliances. The choices of the non-superpowers determine the size and composition of these alliances, thus impacting which superpower gains the upper hand. This demonstrates how non-superpowers can alter the balance of power and shape spheres of influence.

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