Futuristic cityscape showing the economic divide created by AI.

The A.I. Revolution: Will Your Job Survive?

Rhea Morgan in Tech & Innovation December 2025 • 4 min read.

"Navigating the Economic Earthquake of Artificial General Intelligence."

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has sparked both excitement and anxiety about the future of work. While AI promises to boost productivity and create new opportunities, there's a growing concern: will AI, particularly Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), automate a wide range of jobs, leading to mass unemployment and economic disruption?

AGI, which refers to AI systems capable of performing any intellectual task that a human being can, is no longer a distant sci-fi concept. Experts are increasingly suggesting that we should start preparing for its arrival. This raises fundamental questions about what the transition to AGI might look like, how it would impact our economy, and what it would mean for the average worker's paycheck.

To help navigate this uncertain future, economists are developing models to explore different scenarios and potential outcomes. These models decompose human work into tasks, analyze the impact of automation, and consider the role of capital accumulation. The insights gleaned from these models offer a glimpse into a world where AI is not just a tool, but a transformative force reshaping our economic landscape.

Decoding the Future: How AGI Could Reshape the Job Market

Futuristic cityscape showing the economic divide created by AI.

One way to understand the potential impact of AGI is to break down human work into smaller, more manageable components – atomistic tasks. Imagine every job, from a surgeon to a barista, as a collection of these individual tasks. Some tasks are simple and easily automated, like data entry or basic calculations. Others are more complex and require a higher degree of cognitive skill, like creative problem-solving or emotional intelligence. As technology advances, the line between what can and cannot be automated shifts.

The effects of automation on wages depend on a delicate balance – a race between automation and capital accumulation. Here's how it plays out:

The Infinite Work Scenario: If there's always enough complex, new work for humans to do, wages could potentially rise forever, even as automation takes over routine tasks. This requires a constant stream of innovation and adaptation.
The Full Automation Collapse: On the other hand, if the complexity of human tasks is limited, full automation could lead to a collapse in wages. In this scenario, machines can perform almost any job more efficiently, leaving humans with little to offer in the labor market.
The Pre-Collapse Decline: Even before full automation, wages could decline if large-scale automation outpaces capital accumulation. In other words, if there aren't enough resources to absorb displaced workers into new roles, labor becomes too abundant, driving down wages.

However, these models also highlight potential bottlenecks to growth. Scarcity of certain essential resources that cannot be reproduced (such as minerals) could restrain economic expansion and exacerbate wage declines. Productivity gains may lead to broad benefits throughout the economy under alternative scenarios in which technology development enhances every component of production

Preparing for an Uncertain Future

The future is uncertain, but understanding these potential scenarios can help us prepare. By carefully considering the interplay of automation, capital accumulation, and resource scarcity, we can develop policies and strategies to mitigate the risks and harness the opportunities of the AGI revolution. Whether it leads to unprecedented prosperity or widespread disruption, the choices we make today will shape the economic landscape of tomorrow.

About this Article -

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This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2403.12107,

Title: Scenarios For The Transition To Agi

Subject: econ.gn cs.ai q-fin.ec

Authors: Anton Korinek, Donghyun Suh

Published: 17-03-2024

Everything You Need To Know

What is Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and why is it important to understand?

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to AI systems with the ability to perform any intellectual task that a human being can. The importance of understanding AGI stems from its potential to reshape the job market and the entire economy. Unlike current AI, which excels in specific tasks, AGI could automate a wide range of jobs, leading to significant changes in employment, wages, and the overall economic structure. Experts suggest we prepare for its arrival, making it critical to understand its potential impact.

How does the concept of 'atomistic tasks' help us understand the impact of AGI on jobs?

The concept of atomistic tasks breaks down human work into smaller, manageable components. Every job, from a surgeon to a barista, is viewed as a collection of these individual tasks. Some are easily automated, while others require higher cognitive skills. This framework helps analyze which jobs are most vulnerable to automation by AGI. By understanding which tasks can be automated and which require human skills, we can better predict how AGI will reshape the job market and the types of skills that will be in demand.

What are the key scenarios that economists are modeling to understand the impact of AGI on wages, and what are their implications?

Economists are modeling different scenarios to understand how AGI could impact wages. The 'Infinite Work Scenario' suggests wages could rise if there's a constant stream of new, complex work. The 'Full Automation Collapse' indicates wages could collapse if machines can perform almost any job more efficiently. The 'Pre-Collapse Decline' suggests wages could decline if large-scale automation outpaces capital accumulation, leading to an oversupply of labor. These scenarios highlight the complex relationship between automation, capital accumulation, and wage dynamics in the age of AGI.

What is 'capital accumulation' and how does it affect the economic impact of AGI?

Capital accumulation refers to the process of increasing the stock of capital, such as investments in new technologies and infrastructure. In the context of AGI, capital accumulation plays a crucial role in determining wage outcomes. If automation outpaces capital accumulation, there might not be enough resources or new roles to absorb displaced workers, leading to wage declines. Conversely, sufficient capital accumulation can support the creation of new jobs and opportunities, potentially mitigating the negative impacts of AGI and even leading to wage increases.

Besides automation and capital accumulation, what other factor might influence the economic impact of AGI?

Resource scarcity is another factor that might influence the economic impact of AGI. The article suggests that scarcity of certain essential resources that cannot be reproduced, such as minerals, could restrain economic expansion and exacerbate wage declines. While automation and capital accumulation are central, resource constraints could create bottlenecks, impacting economic growth and potentially offsetting productivity gains from AGI. Understanding the interplay of all these factors is key to preparing for the future shaped by AGI.