A seesaw depicting the balance between humanity and global threats, symbolizing the cost of intervention and potential lives saved.

How to Prioritize the Planet: A Guide to Global Catastrophic Risk Reduction

Avery Sinclair in Science & Nature August 2025 • 4 min read.

"Navigating Uncertainties and Investments for a Safer Future"

Global Catastrophic Risks (GCRs) are events that could severely damage or even destroy human civilization. Nuclear war and pandemic diseases are examples of current GCRs. Climate change and risks connected with artificial intelligence and nanotechnology could become GCRs in the future.

There's growing support for minimizing GCRs or specific types of GCRs, as it's recognized as an important goal for society. Assessments of the value of avoiding global catastrophe vary greatly, sometimes suggesting a large allocation of resources towards GCR reduction.

Allocating resources effectively is a major challenge in GCR reduction. One essential question is: How should funds be split between direct risk-reduction activities and research to inform these efforts? Decision analysis can help allocate the right amounts to information gathering (i.e., uncertainty reduction) before making resource allocation choices.

Understanding the Value of Information in GCR Reduction

A seesaw depicting the balance between humanity and global threats, symbolizing the cost of intervention and potential lives saved.

Value of information (VOI) calculations often assess choices through utility functions, money, or similar measures that show tradeoffs, such as balancing lives saved against dollars spent. Using a typical value of statistical life (VSL) saved might not be appropriate given the scale of GCRs. Also, quantifying total global catastrophe consequences is complex due to event impacts and public reactions. This paper suggests a cost-effectiveness-based approach.

A cost-effectiveness-based approach is a useful tool to guide risk-reduction decisions in GCR, which can be practical. Applied to major GCR types, this method offers advantages. A cost-effectiveness-based equation for VOI is valuable where typical VSLs may not be appropriate.

GCR Probabilities: Fault trees show multiple global catastrophic risks.
Cost-Effectiveness and Value of Information for GCR Reduction: A decision tree calculates the VOI.
Perfect and Imperfect Information: GCR research isn't expected to eliminate all uncertainties. EVPI calculations are generally used to set an upper limit on reducing uncertainty.

The aim of this paper is to provide a framework for assessing the potential value of GCR research in reducing uncertainties. This will be done through the illustration of how the decision analysis concept of expected value of perfect information can be used in the context of the cost-effectiveness of GCR reduction.

The Next Steps in Global Catastrophic Risk Reduction

Value of information, based on cost-effectiveness, is a useful tool for analyzing GCR to inform risk-reduction decisions. It applies to GCRs and risk-reduction interventions in an integrated fashion. A discussion of key challenges in the real-world implementation of this paper's framework, and the argument that these challenges can be addressed are made.

About this Article -

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This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: 10.1287/deca.2017.0350, Alternate LINK

Title: Value Of Global Catastrophic Risk (Gcr) Information: Cost-Effectiveness-Based Approach For Gcr Reduction

Subject: General Decision Sciences

Journal: Decision Analysis

Publisher: Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)

Authors: Anthony Michael Barrett

Published: 2017-09-01

Everything You Need To Know

What are Global Catastrophic Risks (GCRs), and what are some examples?

Global Catastrophic Risks (GCRs) are events that could severely damage or even destroy human civilization. Current examples of GCRs include nuclear war and pandemic diseases. Climate change and risks associated with artificial intelligence and nanotechnology are potential future GCRs. These risks are significant concerns due to their potential to cause widespread devastation and impact the long-term survival of humanity.

How can we decide how to allocate resources effectively to reduce Global Catastrophic Risks (GCRs)?

Allocating resources effectively is a major challenge in GCR reduction. Decision analysis is a key tool to aid in this process. It helps determine the optimal distribution of funds between direct risk-reduction activities and research aimed at informing these activities. Understanding the Value of Information (VOI) is critical. It's a calculation often assessed through utility functions, money, or similar measures that show tradeoffs. The paper suggests a cost-effectiveness-based approach for decision-making.

Why is a cost-effectiveness-based approach recommended for Global Catastrophic Risk (GCR) reduction?

A cost-effectiveness-based approach is a useful tool to guide risk-reduction decisions in GCR. It offers practical advantages when applied to major GCR types. This method is valuable where typical Value of Statistical Life (VSL) calculations may not be appropriate. The complexities of quantifying the consequences of a global catastrophe, including the impact and public reaction, make a cost-effectiveness approach more suitable for evaluating interventions and research priorities.

What is the Value of Information (VOI) and how is it calculated in the context of Global Catastrophic Risk (GCR) reduction?

Value of Information (VOI) is a critical concept for GCR reduction. VOI calculations help assess choices through utility functions or similar measures that show tradeoffs, such as balancing lives saved against dollars spent. The paper suggests a cost-effectiveness-based equation for VOI, particularly useful where typical Value of Statistical Life (VSL) measures might not be suitable. Decision analysis, including expected value of perfect information (EVPI) calculations, is used to determine the upper limit on reducing uncertainty in GCR research. This framework aims to provide an understanding of the potential value of GCR research in reducing uncertainties.

What are the next steps and main challenges in implementing the framework for Global Catastrophic Risk (GCR) reduction described?

The next steps involve using the Value of Information (VOI), based on cost-effectiveness, as a tool for analyzing GCRs to inform risk-reduction decisions. This approach applies to both GCRs and risk-reduction interventions. The paper also discusses key challenges in real-world implementation. The authors argue that these challenges can be addressed. These real-world challenges and how they are overcome will be crucial for the practical application of this framework. This includes working with imperfect information since GCR research isn't expected to eliminate all uncertainties.