Harvests of Discord: How Agriculture Fuels Social Conflict in Southeast Asia

Lena Voss in Global Affairs August 2025 • 4 min read.

"Uncover the unexpected link between harvest seasons and social unrest in Southeast Asia's rice-producing regions. Are the roots of conflict buried in the fields?"

In Southeast Asia, the rhythm of the harvest season dictates more than just agricultural output; it influences the delicate balance of social and political stability. A recent study uncovers a compelling relationship between harvest times and outbreaks of political violence and social unrest across the rice-producing croplands of this vibrant region.

Using a comprehensive dataset spanning from 2010 to 2023, which includes over 86,000 incidents across eight Southeast Asian countries, researchers have identified a recurring pattern: a general increase in political violence coupled with a decrease in social unrest during harvest seasons. This discovery challenges conventional understandings of conflict, suggesting that the very activities meant to sustain communities can, under certain conditions, become a catalyst for division.

This article explores the key findings of this research, shedding light on the underlying factors that transform croplands into conflict zones during harvest time. By examining the interplay between agriculture, climate, and socio-political dynamics, we aim to provide a nuanced perspective on the roots of social conflict and offer insights for policymakers seeking to foster peace and stability in Southeast Asia.

Why Does Harvest Time Increase Political Violence?

Rice paddies at sunset with figures representing conflict, Southeast Asia

The study reveals a troubling paradox: harvest seasons, traditionally seen as times of abundance, often correlate with increased political violence, particularly against civilians. The data indicates an approximate 9% surge in violent incidents targeting civilians in areas with significant rice production during harvest periods, compared to other times of the year. This spike is most evident in rural areas dependent on rain-fed agriculture.

This increase isn't arbitrary; it's tied to the location-specific annual variation in growing season rainfall. Years with favorable rainfall, promising good harvests, tend to see an uptick in violence against civilians. Conversely, growing seasons marked by scarce rainfall are often followed by increased battles between politically motivated groups.

Rapacity: The lure of harvest spoils can incentivize organized groups to seize or destroy agricultural outputs.
Resentment: Harvest times can exacerbate existing inequalities, creating tensions between those who benefit from the agricultural surplus and those who do not.
Strategic Advantage: Armed groups may intensify activities during harvest seasons to weaken the state by disrupting revenue collection or intimidating farmers.

To illustrate, consider December 2013, when the Myanmar military attacked civilian rice paddies in Kachin State during harvest. Similarly, in November 2021, military forces burned harvested rice fields in a village suspected of supporting anti-state groups. These actions underscore the deliberate targeting of agriculture as a tactic in broader political conflicts.

Implications for Peace and Stability

Understanding the agricultural roots of social conflict is crucial for developing effective strategies for peace and stability in Southeast Asia. By recognizing the seasonal patterns of violence and the underlying factors that drive them, policymakers can implement targeted interventions to mitigate conflict risks and promote sustainable development. These could include measures to protect farmers and agricultural assets during harvest seasons, address inequalities in access to resources, and promote climate-resilient agricultural practices. Ultimately, fostering peace in Southeast Asia requires a holistic approach that addresses the complex interplay between agriculture, climate, and socio-political dynamics.

About this Article -

This article was crafted using a human-AI hybrid and collaborative approach. AI assisted our team with initial drafting, research insights, identifying key questions, and image generation. Our human editors guided topic selection, defined the angle, structured the content, ensured factual accuracy and relevance, refined the tone, and conducted thorough editing to deliver helpful, high-quality information.See our About page for more information.

This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2304.10027,

Title: Agricultural Roots Of Social Conflict In Southeast Asia

Subject: econ.gn q-fin.ec

Authors: Justin Hastings, David Ubilava

Published: 19-04-2023

Everything You Need To Know

What specific connection was discovered between harvest seasons and social unrest in Southeast Asia?

The study found a correlation between harvest times and outbreaks of political violence and social unrest in Southeast Asia's rice-producing regions. Specifically, the analysis of data from 2010 to 2023 across eight Southeast Asian countries revealed a general increase in political violence, particularly against civilians, during harvest seasons. In contrast, there was a decrease in social unrest during the same period. This suggests that harvest, a time of potential abundance, can paradoxically trigger conflict.

How does rainfall influence the relationship between harvest seasons and violence?

The research indicates that the annual variation in growing season rainfall plays a crucial role. Years with favorable rainfall, which typically lead to good harvests, tend to witness an uptick in violence against civilians. Conversely, growing seasons characterized by scarce rainfall often precede an increase in battles between politically motivated groups. This connection highlights the interplay between climate, agriculture, and conflict.

What are the primary factors contributing to increased political violence during harvest times, according to the findings?

The article identifies three key factors: 'Rapacity', 'Resentment', and 'Strategic Advantage'. 'Rapacity' refers to organized groups being incentivized to seize or destroy agricultural outputs during harvest. 'Resentment' stems from existing inequalities being exacerbated by the agricultural surplus, causing tensions. 'Strategic Advantage' occurs when armed groups intensify their activities during harvest seasons to weaken the state by disrupting revenue collection or intimidating farmers. These factors highlight how the economic and political landscape converges during harvest times.

Can you provide examples illustrating how agriculture is targeted during political conflicts in Southeast Asia?

Certainly. The article cites examples of attacks on agricultural assets during harvest times. In December 2013, the Myanmar military attacked civilian rice paddies in Kachin State during harvest. Similarly, in November 2021, military forces burned harvested rice fields in a village suspected of supporting anti-state groups. These instances demonstrate the deliberate targeting of agriculture as a tactic within broader political conflicts, emphasizing the direct link between harvest seasons and violence.

What strategies can policymakers implement to mitigate conflict risks and promote peace and stability in Southeast Asia, based on the study's findings?

Policymakers can adopt targeted interventions to mitigate conflict risks. These include measures to protect farmers and agricultural assets during harvest seasons, address inequalities in access to resources, and promote climate-resilient agricultural practices. The goal is to address the complex interplay between agriculture, climate, and socio-political dynamics by understanding the seasonal patterns of violence and the underlying factors that drive them. A holistic approach is vital for fostering peace and sustainable development in Southeast Asia.