Trends in diabetes incidence in Italy

Diabetes Trends in Italy: What's Really Happening?

Lena Kashyap in Health & Wellness September 2025 • 4 min read.

"A new analysis sheds light on the complexities behind Italy's diabetes prevalence, separating fact from speculation."

Recent reports highlight an increase in diabetes prevalence in Italy, sparking questions about the underlying causes. While rising prevalence is a concern, understanding whether it's due to more new cases (incidence) or people living longer with diabetes (changes in mortality) is crucial for effective public health strategies.

A deeper dive into temporal changes can clarify this picture. By analyzing both incidence and survival rates, researchers can better understand the dynamics of diabetes in the Italian population. This approach uses an illness-death model, a sophisticated tool in epidemiology, to relate prevalence to incidence, general mortality, and a factor called the hazard ratio (R).

The hazard ratio (R) essentially compares the mortality rates of people with diabetes to those without. Using mathematical equations, researchers can estimate age-standardized incidence rates for men and women over a specific period. This method helps to account for the aging population and provides a clearer view of how diabetes incidence is changing independently of other factors.

Unpacking the Numbers: How Incidence and Hazard Ratios Impact Diabetes Trends

Since hard data on the hazard ratio (R) for the Italian population is lacking, researchers often use different scenarios to model potential trends. These scenarios typically involve varying the value of R in a specific year (e.g., 2013) and projecting how it might change over time. Common assumptions include a gradual decrease in R due to advancements in healthcare, such as improved medication and disease management programs.

The annual percentage change of R, denoted as APC(R), is a key element in these models. Different scenarios can be tested, such as no decrease (APC(R) = 0), a moderate decrease (APC(R) = -1.5%), and a strong decrease (APC(R) = -2.5%) per year. By analyzing these scenarios, researchers can assess the potential impact of changing mortality rates on diabetes incidence.

Scenario Planning: Researchers often model different possibilities for the hazard ratio (R) since precise data is unavailable.
Healthcare Impact: A key assumption is that improvements in healthcare lead to a decrease in R over time.
Annual Percentage Change (APC(R)): This measures how quickly the hazard ratio is changing, with scenarios ranging from no change to significant decreases.

Modeling different APC(R) scenarios reveals its significant impact on estimated incidence rates. While pinpointing exact past incidence trends remains challenging, the range of plausible values can be narrowed. Interestingly, research suggests that R tends to be relatively stable across different populations. For example, studies in Denmark have reported APC(R) values of -1.4% for men and -0.7% for women. When these values are applied to the Italian context, the models provide valuable insights.

The Big Picture: Survival Rates and Diabetes Prevalence

These models suggest that the increase in age-standardized diabetes prevalence in Italy might be more attributable to improved survival rates among people with diabetes than to a surge in new cases. In other words, people are living longer with diabetes, contributing to a higher overall prevalence. While this is a positive development in terms of healthcare, it also highlights the need for continued efforts in diabetes prevention and management to address the growing number of individuals living with the condition.

About this Article -

This article was crafted using a human-AI hybrid and collaborative approach. AI assisted our team with initial drafting, research insights, identifying key questions, and image generation. Our human editors guided topic selection, defined the angle, structured the content, ensured factual accuracy and relevance, refined the tone, and conducted thorough editing to deliver helpful, high-quality information.See our About page for more information.

This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: 10.1016/j.numecd.2018.01.009, Alternate LINK

Title: Possible Trends In Incidence Of Diabetes In Italy

Subject: Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine

Journal: Nutrition, Metabolism and Cardiovascular Diseases

Publisher: Elsevier BV

Authors: A. Hoyer, T. Tönnies, R. Brinks

Published: 2018-04-01

Everything You Need To Know

What's causing the rise in diabetes cases in Italy?

Diabetes prevalence in Italy is a complex issue influenced by both the number of new cases, known as incidence, and how long people live with the disease, which is reflected in mortality rates. Recent findings suggest that while prevalence is increasing, it may be more due to improved survival rates among those with diabetes rather than a significant surge in new diagnoses. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for developing effective public health strategies.

What does the 'hazard ratio (R)' tell us about diabetes trends?

The hazard ratio (R) is a critical factor in understanding diabetes trends because it compares the mortality rates of people with diabetes to those without the condition. A lower hazard ratio indicates better survival among individuals with diabetes relative to the general population, often due to advancements in healthcare and disease management. However, hard data on the hazard ratio (R) for the Italian population is lacking, researchers often use different scenarios to model potential trends.

What is 'Annual Percentage Change of R (APC(R))' and why is it important?

Annual Percentage Change of R, denoted as APC(R), represents how quickly the hazard ratio is changing over time. It's significant because it helps researchers model different scenarios to project future diabetes trends. For example, a negative APC(R) suggests that the mortality rate among people with diabetes is decreasing faster than the general population, potentially leading to a higher diabetes prevalence due to increased survival. When these values are applied to the Italian context, the models provide valuable insights.

Why do researchers use scenario planning for the hazard ratio (R) when studying diabetes trends?

Researchers use scenario planning involving the hazard ratio (R) to model potential diabetes trends in Italy because precise data on R for the Italian population is often unavailable. By varying the value of R and projecting how it might change over time under different scenarios—such as no decrease, moderate decrease, or strong decrease—researchers can assess the potential impact of changing mortality rates on diabetes incidence and prevalence. These scenarios help narrow down a range of plausible values for past incidence trends.

How do better survival rates affect diabetes prevalence?

Improved survival rates among people with diabetes significantly impact diabetes prevalence because when individuals live longer with the condition, the overall number of people with diabetes in the population increases. This means that even if the number of new diabetes cases remains stable or decreases, the prevalence can still rise due to the accumulation of existing cases. The models suggest that the increase in age-standardized diabetes prevalence in Italy might be more attributable to improved survival rates among people with diabetes than to a surge in new cases.