Globe with neural airline pathways and submerged tourist destinations illustrating climate risk.

Destination on the Brink: Is Carbon Risk About to Ground Aviation-Dependent Economies?

Jordan Keane in Climate & Environment August 2025 • 4 min read.

"A new framework reveals the hidden carbon costs threatening tourism hotspots."

The allure of global tourism continues to grow, with air travel acting as its crucial artery. However, this expansion carries a weighty carbon footprint, presenting complex challenges for destinations eager to attract visitors while protecting their environments.

The carbon risk associated with tourism, specifically air travel to and from destinations, has often been underestimated due to a lack of transparent data and comprehensive accounting. The truth is that while it may seem hard to measure, carbon risk could be substantial for different economics.

To address this gap, a new approach has emerged that focuses on demand. Ten carbon risk indicators have been introduced to help destinations evaluate both their absolute and relative exposure to the economic, financial, social, and environmental consequences of carbon emissions. These indicators can act as early warnings, providing insights into potential risks before they escalate.

The 10 Carbon Risk Indicators Destinations Need to Know

Globe with neural airline pathways and submerged tourist destinations illustrating climate risk.

To help destinations better manage their carbon footprints, researchers have proposed ten key indicators. These metrics provide a clearer picture of where emissions originate and how they can be managed effectively. By monitoring these indicators, destinations can gain actionable insights and mitigate their exposure to carbon-related risks.

Here's a breakdown of the proposed indicators:

Total Carbon Usage: Measures the overall carbon emissions from air travel departing from a destination.
Carbon Emissions per Passenger: Gauges the average carbon footprint of each passenger traveling to or from a destination.
Carbon Intensity: Reflects the carbon efficiency of air travel, measured in CO2 emissions per passenger kilometer (pkm).
Total Passenger Volume: Indicates the total number of passengers traveling through a destination.
Share of Premium Passengers: Highlights the percentage of travelers flying in business or first class, who typically have a higher carbon footprint.
Top 5 Carbon-Producing Itineraries: Identifies the most carbon-intensive travel routes.
Number of Unique Itineraries: Shows the diversity of travel routes to and from a destination.
Average Travel Distance per Passenger: Provides insights into the prevalence of long-haul versus short-haul travel.
Detour Factor: Measures the difference between direct and actual flight paths, indicating potential inefficiencies.
Passengers on Itineraries Under 400 km: Highlights opportunities for modal shifts to less carbon-intensive transport options.

Global benchmarks for these carbon, passenger, and itinerary-related indicators have been established, creating a baseline for assessing the carbon risk of individual destinations. By comparing themselves against these benchmarks, destinations can identify areas where they exceed average levels and take targeted action.

Turning Data into Actionable Strategies

By understanding and actively managing their carbon risk, destinations can safeguard their economies and environments for the future. The proposed framework and indicators provide a valuable toolkit for making informed decisions, fostering sustainable tourism, and ensuring long-term prosperity.

About this Article -

This article was crafted using a human-AI hybrid and collaborative approach. AI assisted our team with initial drafting, research insights, identifying key questions, and image generation. Our human editors guided topic selection, defined the angle, structured the content, ensured factual accuracy and relevance, refined the tone, and conducted thorough editing to deliver helpful, high-quality information.See our About page for more information.

This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: 10.1016/j.tourman.2018.10.023, Alternate LINK

Title: A Framework To Help Destinations Manage Carbon Risk From Aviation Emissions

Subject: Strategy and Management

Journal: Tourism Management

Publisher: Elsevier BV

Authors: Susanne Becken, Jon Shuker

Published: 2019-04-01

Everything You Need To Know

What are the primary carbon risk indicators destinations should monitor to assess their carbon footprint from air travel?

Destinations should focus on ten key carbon risk indicators. These include Total Carbon Usage, Carbon Emissions per Passenger, and Carbon Intensity, which measure overall emissions and efficiency. Also critical are Total Passenger Volume and Share of Premium Passengers, which reflect travel demand and passenger behavior. Analyzing Top 5 Carbon-Producing Itineraries, Number of Unique Itineraries, Average Travel Distance per Passenger, Detour Factor, and Passengers on Itineraries Under 400 km, further enables destinations to understand and manage their carbon-related risks. Monitoring these indicators helps in creating actionable strategies for sustainable tourism.

How does the 'Share of Premium Passengers' indicator contribute to understanding a destination's carbon risk?

The 'Share of Premium Passengers' indicator highlights the percentage of travelers flying in business or first class. These passengers typically have a higher carbon footprint compared to those in economy class due to the larger space they occupy on the aircraft and the associated increased fuel consumption per passenger. This indicator helps destinations assess the impact of luxury travel on their overall carbon emissions. By understanding the proportion of premium passengers, destinations can make targeted decisions to mitigate emissions, such as promoting sustainable travel options or encouraging airlines to use more fuel-efficient aircraft on routes frequented by premium travelers.

What is the significance of the 'Detour Factor' in evaluating the carbon risk of a destination?

The 'Detour Factor' measures the difference between direct and actual flight paths. It helps in identifying inefficiencies in air travel operations. Flights that deviate significantly from direct routes burn more fuel, resulting in higher carbon emissions per passenger. A high detour factor suggests potential for emissions reduction through optimized flight paths and better air traffic management. Monitoring this factor enables destinations to work with airlines and air traffic control to improve route efficiency, reduce fuel consumption, and lower their overall carbon footprint.

Why is it important for destinations to monitor 'Passengers on Itineraries Under 400 km'?

Monitoring 'Passengers on Itineraries Under 400 km' highlights opportunities for modal shifts. Short-haul flights are often more carbon-intensive than other transport options, such as high-speed rail or buses. By tracking the number of passengers on these shorter routes, destinations can identify potential areas where travelers could switch to lower-emission alternatives. This encourages the development of sustainable transport infrastructure and promotes travel choices that reduce the carbon footprint of the destination. Encouraging modal shifts supports the adoption of eco-friendly transport, contributing to the overall sustainability of tourism.

How can destinations use the carbon risk indicators to create actionable strategies for sustainable tourism?

By understanding and actively managing their carbon risk, destinations can safeguard their economies and environments. The indicators provide a valuable toolkit for making informed decisions, fostering sustainable tourism, and ensuring long-term prosperity. Destinations can benchmark their performance against global averages for these indicators, identifying areas of concern. This information can inform strategic decisions, such as investing in sustainable infrastructure, promoting eco-friendly transport options, and encouraging airlines to adopt more fuel-efficient technologies. Destinations can also collaborate with stakeholders, including airlines and local businesses, to implement targeted emission reduction measures, creating a more resilient and sustainable tourism industry.