A symbolic image representing the influence of the 'spiral of silence' on voter behavior in Malaysia.

Decoding the Polls: Why Malaysia's Election Predictions Missed the Mark

Author's portrait.
Avery Sinclair in Politics & Policy June 2025 • 5 min read.

"Explore the factors behind inaccurate election polls in Malaysia and what it reveals about voter behavior and political dynamics."


The 2018 Malaysian general election marked a turning point in the nation's political history, witnessing the unexpected defeat of the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, which had held power for over six decades. This outcome stunned many, particularly because pre-election opinion polls had largely failed to predict such a dramatic shift. While the industry had become increasingly integrated into the political landscape, its reliability was called into question as the actual results diverged significantly from the forecasts.

One of the primary challenges in accurately gauging public sentiment in Malaysia lies in the reluctance of many voters to openly share their political preferences. This reticence stems from various factors, including social pressures, fear of repercussions, and a general distrust of pollsters. Unlike countries where voters are more forthcoming, Malaysian pollsters face the daunting task of deciphering veiled intentions and projecting outcomes based on limited and potentially biased data.

This article delves into the reasons behind the failure of opinion polls to accurately predict the 2018 Malaysian election results. By examining the complexities of voter behavior, the influence of ethnic and religious divides, and the impact of social and political dynamics, we aim to provide a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and limitations of political polling in a diverse and evolving society.

The Reluctant Voter: Unmasking Malaysia's 'Spiral of Silence'

A symbolic image representing the influence of the 'spiral of silence' on voter behavior in Malaysia.

Malaysian pollsters face a unique hurdle: a significant portion of the population is hesitant to reveal their true political leanings. This reluctance, regardless of whether interviews are conducted in person or over the phone, makes it difficult to obtain an accurate representation of public sentiment. Unlike their counterparts in Indonesia and the Philippines, who often find greater success in eliciting honest responses, Malaysian pollsters must navigate a landscape of veiled intentions and carefully guarded opinions.

The 'spiral of silence' theory offers a compelling explanation for this phenomenon. It suggests that voters who believe their views are in the minority may suppress their true preferences to avoid social isolation or potential repercussions. In the context of the 2018 election, many voters who favored the opposition may have been hesitant to express their support openly, fearing negative reactions from their community or local authorities. This created a distorted perception of public sentiment, leading polls to underestimate the true extent of support for the opposition.

  • Social Pressure: Fear of judgment or ostracism from family, friends, or community members.
  • Political Reprisals: Concerns about potential repercussions from authorities or political opponents.
  • Cultural Norms: Traditional values that discourage open expression of dissenting opinions.
  • Distrust of Pollsters: Skepticism about the confidentiality and accuracy of polls.
Adding complexity, Malaysia's diverse ethnic and religious landscape further complicates the polling process. Voters' preferences often align along ethnic and religious lines, with different communities favoring different parties. This makes it essential for pollsters to accurately capture the nuances of each group's sentiment and to avoid oversimplifying the electorate's views.

Lessons Learned: The Future of Polling in Malaysia

The 2018 Malaysian election serves as a valuable case study for understanding the limitations of opinion polls in complex and rapidly evolving societies. While polls can provide useful insights into public sentiment, they should not be relied upon as the sole predictor of election outcomes. Factors such as voter reticence, ethnic and religious divides, and the 'spiral of silence' can significantly skew results and lead to inaccurate forecasts. Moving forward, pollsters need to adopt more sophisticated methodologies that account for these complexities and provide a more nuanced understanding of voter behavior. This includes incorporating qualitative research, exploring alternative data sources, and acknowledging the inherent limitations of polling in a diverse and dynamic political landscape.

About this Article -

This article was crafted using a human-AI hybrid and collaborative approach. AI assisted our team with initial drafting, research insights, identifying key questions, and image generation. Our human editors guided topic selection, defined the angle, structured the content, ensured factual accuracy and relevance, refined the tone, and conducted thorough editing to deliver helpful, high-quality information.See our About page for more information.

This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: 10.1080/00358533.2018.1545448, Alternate LINK

Title: Why Opinion Polls Failed To Predict The Fall Of Bn In Malaysia

Subject: Geography, Planning and Development

Journal: The Round Table

Publisher: Informa UK Limited

Authors: Ibrahim Suffian

Published: 2018-11-02

Everything You Need To Know

1

Why was the 2018 Malaysian general election considered a turning point, and what impact did it have on the perception of pre-election opinion polls?

The 2018 Malaysian general election was significant because it saw the unexpected defeat of the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, which had been in power for over six decades. Pre-election opinion polls largely failed to predict this dramatic shift, raising questions about the reliability of polling in Malaysia. This election is now a case study for understanding the limitations of opinion polls in complex societies.

2

What does 'voter reticence' mean in the context of Malaysian elections, and how does it impact the accuracy of opinion polls?

Voter reticence in Malaysia refers to the hesitancy of many voters to openly share their political preferences. This reluctance can be attributed to social pressures, fear of repercussions, and distrust of pollsters. This makes it difficult for pollsters to obtain an accurate representation of public sentiment, leading to potentially biased data and inaccurate forecasts.

3

Can you explain the 'spiral of silence' theory and its potential role in skewing the results of opinion polls during the 2018 Malaysian election?

The 'spiral of silence' theory suggests that voters who believe their views are in the minority may suppress their true preferences to avoid social isolation or potential repercussions. In the 2018 Malaysian election, this may have led many voters who favored the opposition to be hesitant to express their support openly, creating a distorted perception of public sentiment and leading polls to underestimate the opposition's support.

4

How does Malaysia's diverse ethnic and religious landscape complicate the process of conducting accurate political polls?

Malaysia's diverse ethnic and religious landscape complicates the polling process because voters' preferences often align along these lines, with different communities favoring different parties. Pollsters must accurately capture the nuances of each group's sentiment to avoid oversimplifying the electorate's views. Failing to account for these divisions can lead to inaccurate predictions.

5

What steps can pollsters take to improve the accuracy and reliability of their predictions in future Malaysian elections, considering the unique challenges highlighted by the 2018 election?

To improve the accuracy of polling in Malaysia, pollsters need to adopt more sophisticated methodologies that account for complexities like voter reticence, ethnic and religious divides, and the 'spiral of silence'. This includes incorporating qualitative research, exploring alternative data sources, and acknowledging the inherent limitations of polling in a diverse political landscape. By doing so, polling will be more reliable, providing a more nuanced understanding of voter behavior.

Newsletter Subscribe

Subscribe to get the latest articles and insights directly in your inbox.