Cobalt crystals overlaid on a map of Africa, symbolizing the potential for stability and progress in resource-rich regions.

Cobalt's Paradox: How This Energy Metal Could Actually Reduce Conflict in Africa

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Nico Varela in Global Affairs August 2025 • 4 min read.

"A new study reveals the surprising link between cobalt reserves and regional stability in an era of energy transition."


In an era defined by the urgent shift towards renewable energy, certain metals have emerged as critical players. Among these is cobalt, an essential component in lithium-ion batteries that power everything from electric vehicles to smartphones. While the demand for cobalt is soaring, driven by the global energy transition, its impact on the regions where it's mined is complex and often misunderstood.

Conventional wisdom suggests that resource-rich regions are prone to conflict, a phenomenon known as the "resource curse." This theory posits that the presence of valuable natural resources can lead to political instability, corruption, and violence as various actors compete for control. However, a groundbreaking new study challenges this traditional view, focusing specifically on cobalt reserves in Africa.

Weihong Qi's research reveals a surprising twist: regions rich in cobalt may actually experience a reduction in local-level conflicts. This counterintuitive finding is attributed to enhanced government security measures implemented to protect cobalt deposits, regardless of their commercial value. These measures, the study suggests, deter non-governmental actors from seizing control, leading to greater regional stability.

The Unexpected Link: Cobalt and Conflict Reduction

Cobalt crystals overlaid on a map of Africa, symbolizing the potential for stability and progress in resource-rich regions.

Qi's study distinguishes itself from previous research by focusing on the unique characteristics of energy transition metals like cobalt. Unlike high-value minerals such as petroleum and gemstones, cobalt possesses limited commercial value despite its strategic importance. This distinction is crucial in understanding its impact on conflict dynamics.

The research utilizes a combination of georeferenced data and a difference-in-difference design to analyze the causal relationship between cobalt deposits and regional conflict. By examining conflict patterns in African regions with and without cobalt reserves, the study reveals that the presence of cobalt is associated with a decrease in conflict incidents.

  • Cobalt-rich regions experience, on average, 2.05 fewer local-level conflict incidents compared to regions without cobalt.
  • Enhanced governmental security measures in cobalt-rich areas deter non-governmental actors from gaining control.
  • The presence of cobalt deposits leads to an escalation in governmental security measures for territorial control.
This reduction in conflict is attributed to proactive security interventions by governments, aiming to secure these strategically important resources. These measures effectively reduce the likelihood of non-state actors taking control of cobalt-rich territories, pushing them towards areas with less security. This pattern offers a new perspective on the role of energy transition metals in shaping conflict and governance, highlighting the need to reassess theoretical frameworks related to the political implications of natural resources.

Reassessing Resource Wealth in the Age of Energy Transition

The findings of this study offer a compelling challenge to the traditional "resource curse" narrative. As the world continues to transition towards renewable energy sources, it is crucial to understand the complex interplay between resource wealth, governance, and security. Cobalt, with its unique strategic and commercial characteristics, provides a valuable case study for reassessing the political implications of natural resources in the context of the ongoing energy revolution. By recognizing the potential for energy transition metals to foster stability through proactive security measures, policymakers can develop more effective strategies for promoting sustainable development and conflict resolution in resource-rich regions.

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This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2404.17713,

Title: Revisiting The Resource Curse In The Age Of Energy Transition: Cobalt Reserves And Conflict In Africa

Subject: econ.gn q-fin.ec

Authors: Weihong Qi

Published: 26-04-2024

Everything You Need To Know

1

What is the role of cobalt in the energy transition?

Cobalt is a critical metal used in lithium-ion batteries, which are essential for powering electric vehicles and smartphones. Its demand is soaring due to the global shift towards renewable energy sources, making it a key player in the energy transition.

2

How does cobalt challenge the 'resource curse' theory?

The 'resource curse' theory suggests that resource-rich regions are prone to conflict. However, research indicates that cobalt-rich regions in Africa may experience a reduction in local-level conflicts. This is because governments implement enhanced security measures to protect cobalt deposits, deterring non-governmental actors and promoting regional stability.

3

What specific security measures are implemented in cobalt-rich regions?

Governments in cobalt-rich areas increase security measures to protect cobalt deposits. These actions are intended to prevent non-state actors from seizing control of these strategically important resources. This focus on territorial control is a key factor in reducing conflict incidents.

4

Why is cobalt's impact on conflict different from high-value minerals like petroleum?

Unlike high-value minerals such as petroleum and gemstones, cobalt has limited commercial value despite its strategic importance. This characteristic leads governments to focus on securing cobalt deposits, not necessarily for immediate commercial gain, but for the long-term strategic advantage it provides in the energy transition. This security focus contrasts with the often-violent competition for control seen in regions rich in high-value resources.

5

What are the implications of the study's findings for policymakers in resource-rich regions?

The findings suggest that policymakers should reassess the traditional 'resource curse' narrative. Recognizing the potential for energy transition metals like cobalt to foster stability through proactive security measures allows for developing more effective strategies. Policymakers can promote sustainable development and conflict resolution in resource-rich regions by understanding the unique dynamics of these resources in the context of the energy revolution, ensuring security measures are in place to protect strategic resources.

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