Satellite view of Italian landscape with data visualizations showing soil moisture levels.

Can Satellites Predict Landslides? How Space Tech is Saving Lives in Italy

Beau Callahan in Climate & Environment August 2025 • 4 min read.

"Uncover how Italian scientists use satellite soil moisture data to enhance early warning systems for landslide mitigation, reducing false alarms and improving community safety."

Landslides are a global menace, causing significant fatalities and economic damage, with Italy particularly vulnerable. The increasing frequency of heavy rainfall events due to climate change exacerbates this risk, making it crucial to develop effective early warning systems.

Traditional early warning systems often rely on rainfall thresholds, which, while simple to implement, overlook critical soil moisture conditions. Recent research highlights the importance of soil moisture in triggering landslides, prompting the integration of advanced measurement techniques for better predictions.

Satellite soil moisture data offers a promising solution. This article explores how Italian scientists are leveraging satellite technology to enhance landslide prediction and mitigation efforts, providing a more accurate and comprehensive approach to protecting at-risk communities.

Why Soil Moisture Matters: The Science of Landslide Prediction

Satellite view of Italian landscape with data visualizations showing soil moisture levels.

For years, rainfall thresholds have been the cornerstone of landslide early warning systems. These systems operate on the principle that a certain amount of rainfall over a specific period can trigger a landslide. The simplicity of these models—relying solely on rainfall data—made them easy to implement and use.

However, these rainfall-centric models have a critical flaw: they ignore the antecedent soil moisture conditions. Soil moisture plays a pivotal role in slope stability. Soil that is already saturated is far more likely to fail under additional rainfall than dry soil. Recognizing this, scientists began exploring ways to incorporate soil moisture data into their predictive models.

Enhanced Accuracy: By integrating soil moisture data, early warning systems become more precise, reducing false alarms.
Comprehensive Risk Assessment: Soil moisture data provides a more complete picture of ground conditions, enabling better risk management.
Improved Preparedness: Accurate predictions allow for timely evacuations and preventive measures, saving lives and reducing property damage.

The PRESSCA system, operating in the Umbria region of central Italy, exemplifies this advanced approach. PRESSCA integrates real-time rainfall and temperature data with soil moisture estimates derived from a soil water balance model (SWBM). This model is calibrated and tested using local soil moisture observations, enhancing its accuracy and reliability.

Looking Ahead: The Future of Landslide Prediction

The integration of satellite soil moisture data represents a significant step forward in landslide prediction. As technology advances and data sources expand, early warning systems will become even more sophisticated, providing communities with the tools they need to prepare for and mitigate the impacts of these devastating events. By continuing to innovate and refine our predictive capabilities, we can build a safer, more resilient world for all.

About this Article -

This article was crafted using a human-AI hybrid and collaborative approach. AI assisted our team with initial drafting, research insights, identifying key questions, and image generation. Our human editors guided topic selection, defined the angle, structured the content, ensured factual accuracy and relevance, refined the tone, and conducted thorough editing to deliver helpful, high-quality information.See our About page for more information.

This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: 10.1016/b978-0-12-803388-3.00012-7, Alternate LINK

Title: Use Of Satellite Soil Moisture Products For The Operational Mitigation Of Landslides Risk In Central Italy

Journal: Satellite Soil Moisture Retrieval

Publisher: Elsevier

Authors: L. Brocca, L. Ciabatta, T. Moramarco, F. Ponziani, N. Berni, W. Wagner

Published: 2016-01-01

Everything You Need To Know

What is the primary limitation of traditional landslide early warning systems that rely solely on rainfall data?

Traditional landslide early warning systems primarily use rainfall thresholds. These systems predict landslides based on the amount of rainfall over a specific period. While simple to implement, this approach overlooks the crucial role of antecedent soil moisture conditions. Therefore, relying solely on rainfall data can lead to inaccuracies and false alarms because soil saturation levels are not considered.

How does integrating satellite soil moisture data improve landslide early warning systems?

Integrating satellite soil moisture data enhances early warning systems by providing a more comprehensive understanding of ground conditions. Unlike systems relying solely on rainfall, incorporating soil moisture data allows for more precise predictions, reducing false alarms. This leads to better risk assessment and enables timely evacuations and preventive measures, saving lives and reducing property damage.

Can you explain how the PRESSCA system in Umbria, Italy, works to predict landslides?

The PRESSCA system, operating in the Umbria region of central Italy, integrates real-time rainfall and temperature data with soil moisture estimates derived from a soil water balance model (SWBM). This model is calibrated and tested using local soil moisture observations, enhancing its accuracy and reliability. By combining these data sources, PRESSCA offers a more nuanced and accurate assessment of landslide risk compared to systems relying only on rainfall thresholds.

What are the main benefits of using satellite soil moisture data for landslide prediction and risk management?

Satellite soil moisture data offers several advantages. Firstly, it enhances the accuracy of early warning systems by providing a more complete picture of ground conditions. Secondly, it enables a more comprehensive risk assessment, leading to better risk management. Finally, accurate predictions allow for timely evacuations and preventive measures, saving lives and reducing property damage. The integration of this technology represents a significant step forward in landslide prediction, promising a safer, more resilient world.

How are scientists leveraging satellite soil moisture data to enhance early warning systems for landslide mitigation efforts?

Scientists use satellite soil moisture data to enhance early warning systems. Soil moisture, along with rainfall, plays a key role in triggering landslides. By integrating satellite-derived soil moisture data with real-time rainfall and temperature data (like in the PRESSCA system), scientists can create more accurate and reliable models. This advanced approach reduces false alarms and allows for better-informed decision-making regarding evacuations and preventive measures, ultimately saving lives and mitigating property damage.