Sustainable Data: Wind Turbines Powering Digital Infrastructure

Beyond Prediction: How to Mitigate the Unpredictable Carbon Footprint of Digitalization

Rhea Morgan in Climate & Environment December 2025 • 4 min read.

"Uncover why traditional methods of quantifying digital carbon footprints fall short and discover practical strategies for sustainable tech practices."

Digitalization is often touted as a key driver of the green transition, promising to reduce emissions and enhance sustainability across various sectors. Today's common approach involves life-cycle assessments and scenario methodologies to predict the impact of digitalization on the climate. But what if this approach is fundamentally flawed?

A growing body of research suggests that the climate effects of digitalization are inherently unpredictable. Traditional methods rely on assumptions that the digital carbon footprint can be accurately quantified, that business will proceed as usual with change eventually leading to stability, and that digitalization investments will deliver on their promised cost, timeframe, and benefits. However, these assumptions often crumble under the complex reality of rapidly evolving digital technologies.

Instead of focusing solely on prediction, a more effective approach involves mitigating the risks associated with digitalization. By shifting our focus from precise quantification to proactive mitigation, we can address the climate impact of technology more effectively, ensuring that digitalization contributes to a sustainable future rather than undermining it.

Why Can't We Accurately Predict the Digital Carbon Footprint?

Sustainable Data: Wind Turbines Powering Digital Infrastructure

Efforts to quantify the climate impact of digitalization face significant hurdles. These challenges stem from the very nature of digital technologies and their integration into our lives. Several factors contribute to this unpredictability:

Digitalization is pervasive, meaning its effects are widespread and influence nearly every aspect of modern life, making it difficult to isolate and measure its specific environmental impacts.

Quantifying the Unknown: The digital carbon footprint is difficult to quantify due to the complex web of interconnected systems and processes.
Constant Change: Digitalization entails continuous and rapid changes, rendering any predictions based on current data quickly obsolete.
Costly Surprises: Digitalization projects are prone to extreme cost overruns, delays, and benefit shortfalls, further complicating any attempts at accurate forecasting.

Consider the energy consumption of data centers, which are the backbone of the digital world. Data centers require massive amounts of electricity to power servers, cooling systems, and other infrastructure. The energy efficiency of these centers varies widely depending on their design, location, and the technologies they employ. Predicting the energy consumption of future data centers is challenging due to rapidly evolving technologies and increasing data demands. Moreover, the indirect effects of digitalization, such as increased consumption and changing behaviors, are even more difficult to predict. As technology makes goods and services more accessible and affordable, it can lead to increased consumption, offsetting any potential efficiency gains. For example, the rise of e-commerce has reduced the need for physical stores, but it has also led to increased shipping and packaging, which have their own environmental impacts.

Moving Forward: Actionable Steps for a Sustainable Digital Future

The climate impact of digitalization doesn't have to be a mystery. We can shift from prediction to mitigation to improve the climate impact effectively. First of all, transitioning to renewable energy sources, so that the primary negative climate impacts of digitalization are linked to increased (fuel-based) energy consumption; (2) organizing for continuous change with many interdependencies (given that digital technologies – and the whole digital ecosystem – continuously change in nonlinear ways), and (3) improving project delivery for digital-green initiatives (given that digital investments are performing significantly worse compared to other investment.

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This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2407.15016,

Title: Rethinking Digitalization And Climate: Don'T Predict, Mitigate

Subject: cs.cy econ.gn q-fin.ec

Authors: Daria Gritsenko, Jon Aaen, Bent Flyvbjerg

Published: 16-06-2024

Everything You Need To Know

What are the primary challenges in accurately predicting the climate impact of digitalization?

Predicting the climate impact of digitalization is difficult due to several factors. Firstly, the pervasive nature of digitalization means its effects are widespread and difficult to isolate. Secondly, the constant and rapid changes in digital technologies render predictions based on current data quickly obsolete. Thirdly, digitalization projects are prone to cost overruns, delays, and benefit shortfalls, further complicating accurate forecasting. Also, the digital carbon footprint itself is difficult to quantify due to the complex web of interconnected systems and processes involved. These factors, in combination, make it challenging to use traditional methods effectively.

Why do traditional methods of quantifying the digital carbon footprint fall short?

Traditional methods rely on assumptions that often prove unreliable. These assumptions include the ability to accurately quantify the digital carbon footprint, the expectation of business-as-usual scenarios leading to stability, and the belief that digitalization investments will deliver on their promised cost, timeframe, and benefits. However, the complex and rapidly evolving nature of digital technologies often invalidates these assumptions, leading to inaccurate predictions. As an example, the energy consumption of data centers, which are critical to the digital world, is difficult to predict due to changing technologies and rising data demands.

How does the pervasiveness of digitalization impact its environmental footprint analysis?

The pervasiveness of digitalization, its influence across nearly every aspect of modern life, makes it exceptionally difficult to isolate and measure specific environmental impacts. Because digitalization touches so many areas, from data centers to e-commerce, it becomes challenging to determine the direct and indirect environmental consequences attributable to digital technologies. For instance, increased consumption fueled by digital accessibility can offset efficiency gains, complicating the assessment of the overall impact. This widespread influence demands a shift towards proactive mitigation strategies rather than relying solely on predictive models.

What are some practical strategies to mitigate the digital carbon footprint, moving beyond prediction?

Moving beyond prediction, the focus should be on mitigation to improve the climate impact effectively. This involves three main steps: transitioning to renewable energy sources to address the primary negative climate impacts associated with increased energy consumption; organizing for continuous change due to the nonlinear evolution of digital technologies and the digital ecosystem; and improving project delivery for digital-green initiatives to ensure investments yield the intended benefits. These steps provide a proactive approach to reduce the digital carbon footprint.

How do cost overruns and delays in digitalization projects affect the assessment of their environmental impact?

Cost overruns, delays, and benefit shortfalls in digitalization projects significantly complicate attempts at accurate forecasting of their environmental impact. When projects exceed their budgets, timelines, or fail to deliver the expected benefits, it becomes more challenging to assess the actual environmental footprint. These discrepancies can lead to inaccurate predictions of energy consumption, resource use, and emissions. Ultimately, this undermines the effectiveness of predictive models and highlights the need for improved project delivery and risk management to ensure the environmental benefits of digitalization are realized.