Fractured African continent symbolizing ongoing conflicts and political instability.

Unrest in Africa: Understanding the Escalating Conflicts and Political Instability

Theo Raines monogram
Theo Raines in Global Affairs September 2026 • 4 min read.

"A Deep Dive into the Factors Fueling Violence and Displacement Across the Continent."


Africa is currently grappling with a surge in conflicts and political instability, impacting numerous countries and communities. The period of October 2018 alone saw a complex web of events, ranging from escalating violence perpetrated by both state and non-state actors to critical political transitions and humanitarian crises. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for anyone seeking to grasp the current state of affairs on the continent.

Multiple factors contribute to this instability, including ethnic tensions, struggles for resources, weak governance, and the proliferation of armed groups. These issues are further compounded by external influences, such as international interventions and economic pressures, making the situation exceptionally challenging to resolve.

This article will delve into specific instances of unrest documented during October 2018, examining their root causes and potential consequences. We will also explore the broader implications for regional security, human rights, and the overall development of the affected areas. It is crucial to foster a global understanding of the escalating complexities of Africa to galvanize support for sustainable peace and stability.

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Conflict Statistics and Human Displacement

Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced a significant number of conflicts, with data from 2005 to 2022 showing varying intensities. The ACLED dataset records approximately 165,000 conflicts across the continent between 1997 and 2017. These conflicts have led to massive displacement, with over 40 million people forcibly displaced in Africa. Analysis of conflict data from 1997 to 2020 further illustrates the scale and impact of these events.

Traditional Conflict Management Approaches

Constitutional reform is often employed to manage African conflicts, but its limits have been noted. Many approaches adopted are Eurocentric, prompting calls for more creative and contextual strategies. African societies often rely on communal methods for conflict resolution, emphasizing community-oriented solutions. Additionally, conflicts in Africa are exacerbated by broader issues such as the AIDS pandemic, which disrupts social and economic structures.

Historical Narratives and Regional Spillover

Western media often misreads African conflicts by attributing them to cultural factors rather than political or historical contexts. Many of the 16 African countries in conflict are contiguous, leading to regional spillover effects across the Sahel, Horn of Africa, Lake Chad Basin, and Great Lakes regions. Some of the deadliest conflicts have resulted in significant casualties and long-term instability. These historical patterns underscore the interconnected nature of conflicts on the continent.

Conflict Hotspots and Escalating Violence

Fractured African continent symbolizing ongoing conflicts and political instability.

Several regions in Africa experienced heightened conflict during October 2018, each with its unique set of dynamics and challenges. In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) continued to perpetrate violence in the eastern part of the country. The attacks have resulted in alarming casualties and displacement of civilians. The situation is further complicated by the presence of numerous armed groups vying for control of resources and territory.

In DRC, the United Nations (UN) mission, MONUSCO, has been working to stabilize the region. Joint patrols with local police and army forces were initiated to try and restore trust with residents. However, the effectiveness of these measures remains a topic of debate, as the scale and complexity of the conflict require a more comprehensive approach. The army has also registered significant surrenders of militia combatants in the South Kivu province, indicating a potential shift in the dynamics of the conflict.

The main violence included:
  • ADF violence caused hundreds of casualties.
  • Armed attacks in Masisi Territory resulted in numerous deaths and injuries.
  • Militia groups extorted money from civilians and fought over resources.
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Transnational Conflicts and Diplomatic Gaps

Recent research highlights that most armed conflicts in Africa have a significant transnational element, challenging the notion that they are primarily internal. There is a missing strategic theory link in understanding African conflicts, according to some scholars. Diplomatic efforts to resolve these conflicts are often critiqued as insufficient, with ongoing debates about their effectiveness. Studies also examine UN conflict management in African civil wars, using a Global Governance approach to assess outcomes.

Critiques of International Responses

African negotiators have criticized the limited progress at international forums like COP25, highlighting concerns about climate change impacts. The UN Security Council has faced criticism for its restrained approach to certain conflicts, such as those involving the U.S. and Iran. In the DRC, companies have been criticized for failing to ensure their mineral sourcing does not contribute to conflict and human rights abuses. These examples illustrate failures in global governance and corporate responsibility.

Diversity and Real-Time Monitoring of Conflicts

Forced marriages are common in African conflicts, as documented by researchers studying the impact on socioeconomic development. Africa's conflicts are diverse and complex, with mixed outcomes in management and resolution efforts. Real-time tracking of conflicts, such as through interactive maps, provides updates on situations like the Sudan civil war and Sahel instability. These analyses compare different aspects of conflicts to understand their evolving nature.

Meanwhile, in Egypt, the state continued its crackdown on those it accuses of joining terror groups, resulting in further death sentences. A court sentenced three people to death for their involvement in the killing of policemen. The crackdown also extended to political activists and journalists, raising concerns about human rights and freedom of expression. The Egyptian army reported that hundreds of jihadists were killed in its offensive against the Islamic State group (IS) in the Sinai Peninsula, highlighting the ongoing security challenges in the region.

Towards Sustainable Peace and Stability

Addressing the root causes of conflict and instability in Africa requires a multifaceted approach that tackles governance issues, promotes inclusive development, and strengthens regional security mechanisms. International support, while necessary, must be carefully calibrated to avoid exacerbating existing tensions and undermining local ownership of peace processes. By prioritizing inclusive dialogue, promoting economic opportunity, and strengthening governance structures, it is possible to pave the way for a more peaceful and stable future for the continent.

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Expert Analysis and Conflict Economies

Expert opinion on Africa's military unmanned systems provides strategic context beyond daily headlines. African solidarity with global issues like Gaza does not diminish the need to address conflicts in Sudan or the DRC. Middlemen play a role in fuelling conflicts in regions such as the DRC, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. The perception that conflict is more profitable than peace persists in places like the Central African Republic, exacerbating poverty and hindering aid delivery.

Interventions and Future Warfare

Rwanda's unilateral interventionism in African conflicts has determinants and implications for regional stability. Mining-community conflicts in Africa are analyzed for their structural patterns and potential escalation. The future of warfare in 2030 is examined, with questions about what conflicts will look like and how they will be fought. These forward-looking studies aim to anticipate emerging trends and challenges.

Foreign Influence and Electoral Challenges

Foreign powers have played destabilizing roles in African conflicts by supporting warlords or armed groups for strategic or economic gain. Impact investing is seen as a potential solution for African healthcare systems, combining social impact with financial returns. Elections in African countries like Mozambique have degenerated into tensions and post-electoral crises. Systemic challenges also affect African theologians striving for genuine dialogue between cultures and the Bible.

Religion and Informal Power Structures

Religion plays a significant role in African conflicts, as investigated through case studies of Nigeria and Sudan. Informal power structures, such as 'Big Men,' influence the nature of contemporary armed conflict on the continent. These human elements shape the dynamics of conflicts and their resolution. Research on these aspects provides insight into the social and cultural dimensions of instability.

About this Article -

Written with AI assistance from published research, and reviewed by the Mystum team. See our About page for more information.

Everything You Need To Know

1

What specific acts of violence were attributed to the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) during the mentioned period?

During October 2018, the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) perpetrated violence in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), leading to significant casualties and displacement. This violence was exacerbated by the presence of numerous armed groups competing for control of resources and territory. While the United Nations (UN) mission, MONUSCO, has been working with local forces to stabilize the region, the effectiveness of these measures is still debated due to the conflict's complexity. The situation in DRC also involves militia groups extorting money from civilians and fighting over resources, further destabilizing the region.

2

How did the Egyptian state respond to perceived threats from terror groups and political activists, and what were the implications?

In Egypt, during October 2018, the state increased its crackdown on individuals accused of joining terror groups, leading to death sentences. This crackdown also extended to political activists and journalists, raising concerns about human rights and freedom of expression. The Egyptian army reported killing hundreds of jihadists in its offensive against the Islamic State group (IS) in the Sinai Peninsula, showing the ongoing security challenges. This focus on security measures highlights the government's approach to countering threats, but it also raises questions about the balance between security and civil liberties.

3

What strategies are essential for achieving sustainable peace and stability, and what considerations should guide international support?

Addressing the root causes requires a multifaceted approach that includes improving governance, promoting inclusive development, and strengthening regional security mechanisms. International support is needed, but it must be carefully managed to prevent exacerbating existing tensions and to ensure local ownership of peace processes. The approach involves prioritizing inclusive dialogue, promoting economic opportunity, and strengthening governance structures. Overlooking these steps can lead to unsustainable solutions and continued instability.

4

What factors contribute to the rise and persistence of armed groups, and how do their activities impact stability?

The proliferation of armed groups is driven by various factors such as ethnic tensions, struggles for resources, and weak governance. These armed groups exploit the lack of state control and compete for power and resources, leading to increased violence and instability. The presence and activities of these groups undermine state authority and disrupt peace efforts, making it harder to establish long-term stability.

5

Beyond the specific instances of unrest, what broader challenges are reflected, and what comprehensive strategies are needed to address them?

While the article focuses on events that happened in October 2018, these events are indicative of broader, ongoing challenges. Conflicts and instability in Africa are often rooted in historical grievances, socio-economic inequalities, and political exclusion. Addressing these underlying issues requires long-term strategies that promote inclusive governance, economic development, and social cohesion. Without tackling these root causes, similar patterns of conflict and instability are likely to persist, undermining long-term peace and development efforts.

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