Climate activists marching uphill, some figures fading.

The Climate Protest Paradox: Why More Activists Might Mean Fewer Participants

Beau Callahan in Climate & Environment June 2025 • 4 min read.

"Discover how individual beliefs about collective action are reshaping climate movements and what it means for the future of environmental activism."

Political activism is surging globally, fueled by digital tools, and climate change stands as one of its most pressing concerns. Understanding the dynamics of protest movements is essential for driving social change, yet many questions remain about why individuals choose to participate.

While it's often assumed that a greater belief in the collective effort would boost individual participation, a recent study uncovers a surprising twist: strategic substitutes. This means that individuals might be less inclined to join a protest if they believe many others will participate anyway. This phenomenon challenges conventional wisdom and has significant implications for how we mobilize and sustain climate action movements.

This article examines the unexpected relationship between beliefs and participation in climate protests, drawing insights from field experiments conducted across four major German cities. By understanding these subtle dynamics, we can better strategize for effective climate action and social movements in the future.

The Surprising Impact of Beliefs on Climate Protest Participation

Climate activists marching uphill, some figures fading.

A groundbreaking study, published December 17, 2021, delves into the complexities of climate protest participation. The researchers focused on a critical question: Are individual decisions to join a climate protest truly independent, or are they influenced by perceptions of what others might do? The study, conducted across four major German cities, uncovers that potential climate protesters are influenced by what they believe other potential protesters may do.

The research team recruited 1,510 subjects from Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, and Cologne two weeks before a planned climate protest. Participants completed online surveys that gauged their participation and their beliefs about others' participation. To introduce variance in beliefs, the team provided randomized informational interventions.

Data Collection: Surveys measured participation and beliefs about others' actions.
Informational Intervention: Subjects received varied information to shift their beliefs.
Causal Effect Analysis: Control functions estimated how beliefs influenced actual participation.

The study revealed that individuals often act as 'strategic substitutes.' This means that if a person believes more people will participate, they are less likely to join themselves. Specifically, for the average person, a 1 percentage point increase in the belief that others will participate leads to a 0.67 percentage point decrease in their own participation. This finding underscores the delicate balance between individual motivation and collective action.

Implications for the Future of Climate Activism

This research offers key insights for organizers and policymakers. By understanding that individuals may be less likely to act when they believe others will, strategies can be adjusted to emphasize the importance of each individual's contribution. Effective mobilization could involve personalized calls to action, highlighting the unique impact each participant can make, and fostering a sense of individual responsibility within the broader movement. Further research could explore how different framing and communication strategies can overcome the strategic substitutes effect, ensuring sustained engagement in climate activism.

About this Article -

This article was crafted using a human-AI hybrid and collaborative approach. AI assisted our team with initial drafting, research insights, identifying key questions, and image generation. Our human editors guided topic selection, defined the angle, structured the content, ensured factual accuracy and relevance, refined the tone, and conducted thorough editing to deliver helpful, high-quality information.See our About page for more information.

Everything You Need To Know

What is the 'strategic substitutes' effect in the context of climate protests, and how does it impact participation?

The 'strategic substitutes' effect, as identified in the study across four major German cities, suggests that individuals are less likely to participate in a climate protest if they believe that many others will participate anyway. The research indicated that a 1 percentage point increase in the belief that others will participate can lead to a 0.67 percentage point decrease in an individual's own participation. This effect highlights how perceptions of collective action can inadvertently reduce individual involvement.

How did the study conducted in German cities measure the impact of beliefs on climate protest participation?

The study, which took place in Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, and Cologne, recruited 1,510 subjects and used online surveys to measure participants' beliefs about others' participation and their own intended participation in climate protests. To introduce variance in beliefs, the research team provided randomized informational interventions. Then, they used control functions to estimate how these beliefs influenced actual participation, providing insights into the 'strategic substitutes' phenomenon.

Why is it important for organizers and policymakers to understand the concept of 'strategic substitutes' when mobilizing climate activists?

Understanding 'strategic substitutes' is crucial because it reveals that a common assumption—that a greater belief in collective effort always boosts individual participation—isn't necessarily true. When individuals believe many others will participate, they may feel their own contribution is less critical. Organizers can adjust their strategies to emphasize the importance of each individual's contribution, using personalized calls to action and highlighting the unique impact each participant can make to foster a sense of individual responsibility. This adjustment can lead to more effective mobilization and sustained engagement in climate activism.

Beyond the 'strategic substitutes' effect, what other factors might influence an individual's decision to participate in climate protests, and how could future research explore these?

While the 'strategic substitutes' effect sheds light on the relationship between beliefs and participation, other factors, such as personal values, perceived effectiveness of protests, social pressure, and the costs associated with participation (time, resources, potential risks), could also influence an individual's decision. Future research could explore how different framing and communication strategies can overcome the 'strategic substitutes' effect. It could also investigate the role of social networks and community engagement in motivating participation, as well as how to leverage digital tools to create a stronger sense of collective identity and shared responsibility.

What does the research suggest about strategies for effectively mobilizing individuals for climate action, given the 'strategic substitutes' effect?

Given the 'strategic substitutes' effect, effective mobilization strategies should focus on emphasizing the unique value and impact of each individual's contribution. Personalized calls to action can highlight how each participant can make a difference, fostering a sense of individual responsibility within the broader movement. Communication strategies should aim to create a sense of urgency and highlight the potential consequences of inaction, while also addressing potential barriers to participation, such as time constraints or logistical challenges. By tailoring messages to resonate with individual motivations and values, organizers can overcome the 'strategic substitutes' effect and encourage greater involvement in climate action.