Grocery basket on a seesaw, symbolizing fluctuating food prices influenced by US and Chinese markets.

Is Your Grocery Basket at Risk? Uncover the Hidden Connections in Global Food Prices

Samir D’Costa in Business & Economy August 2025 • 4 min read.

"A new study reveals how shocks in US and Chinese agricultural futures markets can ripple through your local supermarket."

In an increasingly interconnected world, the prices of agricultural products are no longer isolated events. What happens in the vast futures markets of the United States and China can have a surprisingly direct impact on the food you buy at your local grocery store. A recent study sheds light on these intricate relationships, revealing how economic uncertainties and market shocks can ripple through the global agricultural system.

The research delves into the dynamic risk spillovers between eleven key agricultural futures traded on US and Chinese exchanges, analyzing data from July 2014 to December 2022. By understanding these complex interactions, consumers and investors alike can better prepare for potential price fluctuations and make informed decisions.

This article breaks down the key findings of the study, explaining how events like economic instability, pandemics, and geopolitical conflicts influence the prices of essential food items. We'll explore which agricultural products act as major risk transmitters, which are more vulnerable to price shocks, and what strategies you can use to mitigate the impact on your wallet.

Understanding the Domino Effect: How US and Chinese Markets Impact Global Food Prices

Grocery basket on a seesaw, symbolizing fluctuating food prices influenced by US and Chinese markets.

The study pinpoints specific agricultural products that act as primary risk transmitters, meaning they have the greatest influence on price fluctuations in other markets. CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) corn, soybean, and wheat emerged as the dominant players, with DCE (Dalian Commodity Exchange) corn and soybean primarily on the receiving end of these price shocks.

Think of it like a domino effect: a significant event impacting US corn production, for example, can quickly translate into price volatility for soybeans and wheat, both in the US and in China. This, in turn, can affect the cost of animal feed, processed foods, and ultimately, the prices consumers pay.

CBOT Corn, Soybean, and Wheat: Major risk transmitters, influencing price fluctuations across markets.
DCE Corn and Soybean: Primarily risk receivers, more vulnerable to price shocks originating elsewhere.

But what triggers these initial shocks? The study highlights the role of sudden events and increased economic uncertainty. Pandemics like COVID-19, geopolitical conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war, and even shifts in economic policy can all contribute to heightened price volatility in agricultural futures markets.

Protecting Your Plate: Strategies for Navigating Food Price Volatility

While the complexities of agricultural futures markets may seem far removed from your daily life, understanding these dynamics can empower you to make informed choices and protect your budget. By recognizing the interconnectedness of global food prices and the factors that contribute to volatility, you can anticipate potential price increases and adjust your spending habits accordingly.

About this Article -

This article was crafted using a human-AI hybrid and collaborative approach. AI assisted our team with initial drafting, research insights, identifying key questions, and image generation. Our human editors guided topic selection, defined the angle, structured the content, ensured factual accuracy and relevance, refined the tone, and conducted thorough editing to deliver helpful, high-quality information.See our About page for more information.

This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: 10.1002/fut.22551,

Title: Uncovering The Sino-Us Dynamic Risk Spillovers Effects: Evidence From Agricultural Futures Markets

Subject: econ.gn q-fin.ec q-fin.rm

Authors: Han-Yu Zhu, Peng-Fei Dai, Wei-Xing Zhou

Published: 04-03-2024

Everything You Need To Know

How do agricultural futures markets in the U.S. and China affect the price of food at my local grocery store?

Events in the U.S. and Chinese agricultural futures markets can significantly influence the prices of everyday food items. Economic uncertainties, geopolitical conflicts, and market shocks in these major markets create ripple effects, impacting the costs of agricultural products like corn, soybean, and wheat. These fluctuations then affect the price of animal feed, processed foods, and ultimately, what consumers pay at the grocery store. Understanding these dynamics can help you anticipate price changes and adjust your spending.

Which agricultural products primarily drive price fluctuations in the global market, according to recent research?

The study identifies CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) corn, soybean, and wheat as major risk transmitters, meaning they significantly influence price fluctuations in other markets. Conversely, DCE (Dalian Commodity Exchange) corn and soybean are primarily risk receivers, making them more vulnerable to price shocks originating from other markets. Because CBOT corn, soybean and wheat are risk transmitters, any event impacting these will be felt across the world.

What events or factors can cause volatility in agricultural futures markets?

Various events and factors can trigger volatility in agricultural futures markets. These include pandemics like COVID-19, geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war, and shifts in economic policies. These events create uncertainty, which can lead to increased price fluctuations in the agricultural futures market, impacting the costs of essential food items for consumers. Understanding these triggers allows for better anticipation and preparation for potential price increases.

How did the study analyze the relationship between US and Chinese agricultural futures markets?

The research examined dynamic risk spillovers among eleven key agricultural futures traded on US (CBOT) and Chinese (DCE) exchanges, using data from July 2014 to December 2022. The study focused on how shocks in one market (e.g., US corn) could affect others (e.g., Chinese soybean). By understanding these interactions, the study identified CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat as primary risk transmitters and DCE corn and soybean as risk receivers.

Considering that CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat are major risk transmitters, what implications does this have for global food security and price stability?

The fact that CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat are major risk transmitters means that any significant disruption to their production or trade in the U.S. can have far-reaching consequences for global food security and price stability. Because these commodities are key ingredients in animal feed and processed foods, supply chain disruptions or price spikes can cascade through the global food system. This could lead to increased food prices, particularly for consumers in countries that rely on imports of these commodities. Effective risk management strategies and international cooperation are essential to mitigate these impacts and ensure food access for vulnerable populations.