Scale tilting from evidence to intuition with the US Capitol in the background.

Is Evidence Losing Out to Intuition? The Shift in US Politics and What It Means for You

Beau Callahan in Politics & Policy September 2025 • 4 min read.

"New research reveals a worrying trend: evidence-based reasoning is declining in US Congressional speeches. Discover how this shift impacts policy, society, and your understanding of truth."

In an era defined by rapid change and complex challenges, the foundations of sound decision-making are more critical than ever. Democracies thrive on honest and truthful governance, where accountability and transparency are paramount. But what happens when the very basis of our decisions—the way we perceive and pursue truth—begins to shift?

A fascinating new study delves into this question by analyzing over a century of US Congressional speeches. The research reveals a concerning trend: a gradual decline in evidence-based language, replaced by a growing reliance on intuition and subjective interpretations. This isn't just an academic observation; it's a phenomenon with far-reaching consequences for policy, society, and the health of our democratic institutions.

This article breaks down this complex research, exploring the nuances of this shift, its potential causes, and what it means for you. We'll examine the evidence, consider the implications, and discuss how we can navigate this changing landscape to promote more informed and effective governance.

The Decline of Evidence: A Century-Long Trend

Scale tilting from evidence to intuition with the US Capitol in the background.

The study, led by researchers at the University of Konstanz and other institutions, analyzed millions of Congressional speeches from 1879 to 2022. Using sophisticated computational text analysis, they tracked the prevalence of evidence-based language—words and phrases associated with facts, data, and verifiable information—compared to intuition-based language, which reflects feelings, instincts, and personal values.

The findings paint a clear picture: while evidence-based language remained relatively stable for the first half of the 20th century, it began a steady decline in the mid-1970s. This decline coincides with a decrease in legislative productivity and a rise in partisan polarization, suggesting a potential link between the way our leaders communicate and their ability to govern effectively.

1879-1970s: A period of relative stability in the use of evidence-based language in Congressional speeches.
Mid-1970s Onward: A consistent decline in evidence-based language, signaling a shift in rhetorical styles.
Evidence-Minus-Intuition (EMI) Score: A key metric used to quantify the balance between evidence-based and intuition-based language.

To measure this shift, researchers developed the Evidence-Minus-Intuition (EMI) score, a metric that quantifies the balance between evidence-based and intuition-based language. A higher EMI score indicates a greater reliance on facts and data, while a lower score suggests a preference for subjective interpretations. The EMI score is an important instrument that enable and quantified a major shift in US political rethoric.

Reclaiming Evidence: A Path Towards Better Governance

The study's findings serve as a wake-up call, highlighting the importance of evidence-based reasoning in maintaining a healthy democracy. While intuition and personal values certainly have a role to play in decision-making, an overreliance on them can lead to policies that are divorced from reality and fail to address the needs of the people. By fostering a culture that values facts, data, and critical thinking, we can empower our leaders to make more informed decisions, bridge partisan divides, and build a more just and prosperous society for all.

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This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2405.07323,

Title: Computational Analysis Of Us Congressional Speeches Reveals A Shift From Evidence To Intuition

Subject: econ.gn cs.cy q-fin.ec

Authors: Segun Taofeek Aroyehun, Almog Simchon, Fabio Carrella, Jana Lasser, Stephan Lewandowsky, David Garcia

Published: 12-05-2024

Everything You Need To Know

What is the Evidence-Minus-Intuition (EMI) score, and why is it significant in the context of US Congressional speeches?

The Evidence-Minus-Intuition (EMI) score is a metric developed by researchers to quantify the balance between evidence-based and intuition-based language in US Congressional speeches. It is calculated by analyzing the frequency of words and phrases associated with facts and data (evidence-based language) versus those related to feelings and personal values (intuition-based language). A higher EMI score signifies a greater reliance on evidence, while a lower score indicates a shift towards intuition. The significance of the EMI score lies in its ability to reveal a long-term trend: a decline in evidence-based language since the mid-1970s, which coincides with decreased legislative productivity and increased partisan polarization.

How did the use of evidence-based language in US Congressional speeches evolve over time, and what periods were identified by the study?

The study analyzing US Congressional speeches from 1879 to 2022 revealed a significant shift in language usage. Before the mid-1970s, the use of evidence-based language remained relatively stable. However, from the mid-1970s onward, the study observed a consistent decline in the use of evidence-based language. This transition signals a notable change in rhetorical styles within the Congress, moving away from facts, data, and verifiable information toward rhetoric based more on intuition, feelings, instincts, and personal values.

What are the potential implications of the decline in evidence-based reasoning in US politics, as indicated by the research?

The decline in evidence-based reasoning, as observed in US Congressional speeches, carries several potential implications. Firstly, it may contribute to a decrease in legislative productivity because it can be more difficult to reach agreements when arguments are not grounded in shared facts. Secondly, this shift can fuel partisan polarization, as politicians may rely more on subjective interpretations and personal values, which can exacerbate divisions. Finally, an overreliance on intuition can lead to policies that are disconnected from reality and less effective in addressing the needs of the populace.

What specific role does the study suggest for intuition and personal values in decision-making within a democratic context?

The study acknowledges that intuition and personal values do have a role in decision-making, but it also cautions against an overreliance on them. While these elements can contribute to a holistic understanding of complex issues and help in considering diverse perspectives, they should not overshadow the importance of evidence-based reasoning. The study's findings underscore that in order to build a more just and prosperous society, facts, data, and critical thinking are vital for making informed decisions, bridging partisan divides, and creating effective policies.

How can a culture that values facts and data contribute to the improvement of governance and democratic institutions, according to the research?

According to the research, fostering a culture that values facts, data, and critical thinking can significantly improve governance and strengthen democratic institutions. By prioritizing evidence-based reasoning, leaders can make more informed decisions, leading to policies that are more effective and better aligned with the needs of the people. This approach encourages transparency and accountability, which are fundamental for maintaining the health of a democracy. Moreover, it promotes bridging partisan divides by establishing a shared foundation of verifiable information that everyone can agree upon. Ultimately, an emphasis on facts empowers leaders to make more informed decisions and build a more just and prosperous society.