Surreal illustration of EU flags rebuilding a broken bridge in the Balkans.

Is EU Enlargement Really Working? A Deep Dive into Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Kosovo

Soraya Malik in Politics & Policy June 2025 • 4 min read.

"Explore how EU influence and political promises impact democratization in the Balkans, revealing the complex realities beyond policy."

The fall of communism in Eastern Europe sparked hopes for widespread democratization. However, in the Western Balkans, this transition was complicated by the violent breakup of Yugoslavia, where state-building and national identity became intertwined with democratization. The European Union (EU) stepped in, aiming to foster economic prosperity and stable democracies across the region.

More than a decade into the EU enlargement process, significant challenges remain. One critical issue is the weak implementation of the rule of law, which directly impacts civil liberties. Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and Kosovo are prime examples, with their progress stalled and EU expectations unmet. The core question is: How effective is the EU's enlargement process, particularly its political conditions, in boosting democracy in these complex post-conflict societies?

This article delves into the EU's role in the democratization of BiH and Kosovo. By comparing these two countries, we aim to understand how the EU's political conditions influence democratic development. Both nations share a legacy from Yugoslavia and have undergone peacebuilding with externally-driven state-building. This involves establishing state institutions acceptable to all domestic actors while aligning with the EU integration process.

The EU's Carrot-and-Stick Approach: Does It Really Work?

Surreal illustration of EU flags rebuilding a broken bridge in the Balkans.

The EU uses a strategy known as “conditionality,” often described as a carrot-and-stick approach. The “carrots” are incentives like economic aid and eventual membership, offered for good behavior. The “sticks” are punishments, such as withholding benefits, for failing to meet specific obligations. This strategy is rooted in the idea that external pressure can drive internal reforms. However, theories diverge on how this actually plays out.

Rationalist theories suggest that EU influence changes the cost-benefit analysis for domestic actors, empowering those who benefit from reforms. Constructivist theories, on the other hand, focus on how domestic actors internalize EU norms, seeing them as legitimate and desirable. In reality, the effectiveness of EU conditionality depends on the complex interplay of these factors.

Rationalist Theory: EU conditionality alters the incentives for local actors, making reforms more attractive.
Constructivist Theory: Domestic actors adopt EU norms because they view them as legitimate and beneficial for their society.
Practical Implication: The success of EU influence hinges on both changing incentives and fostering a sense of shared values.

But are civil liberties and the rule of law, when merely enforced through external agreements, truly effective in building a democratic state? The following sections will explore the impact of EU conditionality on Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo to answer this very question.

Reassessing EU's Role: A Path Forward

The EU's approach in the Balkans is complex and requires a nuanced understanding of local dynamics. While conditionality has had some positive effects, its success is not guaranteed. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the EU's influence was initially effective but stalled due to internal political conflicts and a failure to fully embrace EU values. In Kosovo, a more tailored approach, focusing on gradual progress and normalization of relations with Serbia, has shown promise. Moving forward, the EU needs to adapt its strategies, focusing on building genuine commitment to democratic values and fostering inclusive political processes to achieve lasting democratization in the region.

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Everything You Need To Know

What is the main goal of the European Union (EU) in the Western Balkans, particularly in countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and Kosovo?

The European Union (EU) aims to foster economic prosperity and stable democracies in the Western Balkans, including Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and Kosovo. This involves promoting democratization, establishing state institutions acceptable to all domestic actors, and aligning these nations with the EU integration process. The EU's strategy includes using political conditions to boost democracy in these post-conflict societies.

How does the EU use its 'carrot-and-stick' approach, known as conditionality, to encourage reforms in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo?

The EU's 'conditionality' approach involves offering incentives ('carrots') like economic aid and eventual membership for good behavior, while also using punishments ('sticks') such as withholding benefits for failing to meet specific obligations. This strategy is based on the idea that external pressure can drive internal reforms in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo. The effectiveness of this approach depends on the interplay of changing incentives and fostering a sense of shared values among domestic actors.

What are the rationalist and constructivist theories related to EU conditionality, and how do they explain the impact of the EU's influence on democratization in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo?

Rationalist theories suggest that EU conditionality alters the cost-benefit analysis for domestic actors in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, making reforms more attractive to those who benefit from them. Constructivist theories, on the other hand, focus on how domestic actors internalize EU norms, viewing them as legitimate and desirable for their society. The success of EU influence depends on both changing incentives and fostering a sense of shared values. For example, if local politicians see EU norms as a path to personal gain they would be more likely to push for reform, while others may see those same changes as good and adopt them.

What are some of the challenges that Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo face in their progress toward democratization and EU integration?

Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo face significant challenges, including the weak implementation of the rule of law, internal political conflicts, and the need to fully embrace EU values. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, progress has stalled due to these internal issues. Kosovo requires a tailored approach that focuses on gradual progress and the normalization of relations with Serbia. Overcoming these challenges requires genuine commitment to democratic values and fostering inclusive political processes.

How effective has the EU's enlargement process been in promoting civil liberties and the rule of law in complex post-conflict societies like Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, and what adjustments might be necessary?

The EU's enlargement process has had mixed results in promoting civil liberties and the rule of law in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo. While conditionality has had some positive effects, its success is not guaranteed. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the EU's influence was initially effective but stalled due to internal political conflicts and a failure to fully embrace EU values. In Kosovo, a more tailored approach, focusing on gradual progress and normalization of relations with Serbia, has shown promise. Moving forward, the EU needs to adapt its strategies, focusing on building genuine commitment to democratic values and fostering inclusive political processes to achieve lasting democratization in the region.