Symbolic representation of the High Value Target strategy's impact on Mexican cartels.

High Value Target Strategy: Why It Failed in Mexico's War on Drugs

Reese Marlowe in Politics & Policy June 2025 • 4 min read.

"A deep dive into the High Value Target (HVT) strategy and its unintended consequences in Mexico's fight against drug trafficking."

The recent escape of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán from the maximum-security El Altiplano prison highlights a major setback in the war on drugs. This underscores the challenges of dismantling drug cartels, particularly concerning the High Value Target (HVT) strategy.

The HVT strategy, aimed at dismantling drug trafficking organizations by targeting their leaders, was a key approach during Felipe Calderón's administration (2006-2012). This strategy focused on capturing or eliminating key cartel figures to disrupt operations.

However, a confidential report from the Procuraduría General de la República (PGR) in April 2015, touted successful results in combating organized crime, with numerous high-profile arrests. Yet, this approach faces scrutiny due to the evolving dynamics of Mexican cartels.

Why the HVT Strategy Missed Its Mark

Symbolic representation of the High Value Target strategy's impact on Mexican cartels.

The HVT strategy, while seemingly straightforward, often led to unintended consequences in Mexico. Unlike Al-Qaeda, where leadership losses significantly weakened the organization, Mexican cartels demonstrated remarkable resilience. This resilience stems from the cartels' decentralized structure and the lucrative nature of the drug trade.

One key flaw was the oversimplified application of the HVT strategy, which didn't account for the unique characteristics of Mexican cartels. These cartels aren't strictly hierarchical; they function more like networks, where the removal of a leader often creates a power vacuum quickly filled by others. This leads to increased internal conflicts and further fragmentation.

Erroneous Assumptions: The HVT strategy assumes that criminal organizations are hierarchical and centralized. In reality, Mexican cartels are transitioning to horizontal structures where regional bosses have significant autonomy.
Ignoring Succession Wars: The strategy presumes a defined succession process. Instead, leadership vacuums often trigger violent succession battles.
Ambiguous Goals: The focus was on the number of captured or killed leaders, while ignoring increases in executions, kidnappings, and extortion.

Furthermore, the operational environment of Mexican cartels differs significantly from that of Al-Qaeda. Cartels are driven by economic motives, leading to intense competition for territory and resources. Eliminating a leader doesn't necessarily cripple the cartel; it simply opens opportunities for rivals. This hyper-competitive environment fuels a continuous arms race and escalating violence.

Lessons Learned: Adapting Strategies for Future Success

While arresting or eliminating cartel leaders isn't inherently negative, it's crucial to learn from past experiences. A more nuanced approach is needed, one that acknowledges the specific dynamics of Mexican cartels and avoids a one-size-fits-all strategy. By understanding these factors, future strategies can better address the complex challenges of combating drug trafficking.

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This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: 10.4067/s0719-09482015000200008, Alternate LINK

Title: ¿Éxito Táctico O Fracaso Estratégico? High Value Target Y Su Aplicación A La Guerra Contra El Narcotráfico (2006-2012)

Journal: Si Somos Americanos

Publisher: SciELO Agencia Nacional de Investigacion y Desarrollo (ANID)

Authors: Esteban Arratia Sandoval

Published: 2015-12-01

Everything You Need To Know

What was the High Value Target (HVT) strategy in Mexico's War on Drugs, and what was its primary objective?

The High Value Target (HVT) strategy aimed to weaken drug cartels by capturing or eliminating their leaders, with the goal of disrupting their operations. It was a central tactic during Felipe Calderón's administration (2006-2012). However, it often led to unintended consequences such as increased violence and cartel fragmentation.

What was the main flaw in the High Value Target (HVT) strategy regarding the structure of Mexican cartels?

One key flaw of the High Value Target (HVT) strategy was the assumption that Mexican cartels were structured hierarchically, similar to organizations like Al-Qaeda. In reality, Mexican cartels operate more like decentralized networks. Removing a leader often created power vacuums, triggering violent succession battles and further fragmenting the cartels. The strategy didn't account for regional bosses having significant autonomy.

How did the High Value Target (HVT) strategy's focus on cartel leaders inadvertently fuel violence and instability?

The High Value Target (HVT) strategy incorrectly assumed a defined succession process within cartels. Instead, leadership vacuums often ignited intense and violent succession battles among rival factions. The focus was primarily on the number of captured or killed leaders, while overlooking the subsequent increase in executions, kidnappings, and extortion that resulted from these power struggles.

Why did eliminating a cartel leader through the High Value Target (HVT) strategy not necessarily cripple the cartel's operations?

Mexican cartels are primarily driven by economic motives, leading to intense competition for territory and resources. When a leader is eliminated through the High Value Target (HVT) strategy, it doesn't necessarily cripple the cartel; instead, it creates opportunities for rival cartels and internal factions to seize control. This fuels a continuous arms race and escalates violence as different groups vie for dominance.

What are the key lessons learned from the High Value Target (HVT) strategy that should inform future approaches to combating drug trafficking in Mexico?

While arresting or eliminating cartel leaders isn't inherently negative, a more nuanced approach is needed. Future strategies should acknowledge the specific dynamics of Mexican cartels and avoid a one-size-fits-all mentality. Understanding the economic drivers, decentralized structures, and potential for violent succession is crucial for developing more effective strategies to combat drug trafficking.