A global map illustrating the projected increases in health spending across different countries through interconnected glowing nodes.

Future of Global Healthcare: Are We Prepared for the Trillion-Dollar Spending Spree?

Samir D’Costa in Health & Wellness November 2025 • 5 min read.

"New research unveils the projected health expenditure landscape for 184 countries through 2040, highlighting opportunities and challenges for sustainable healthcare financing."

Access to adequate healthcare is a fundamental human right, yet it remains a challenge for many across the globe. The availability of resources, particularly prepaid mechanisms that pool risk and ensure financial protection, plays a crucial role in determining access and health outcomes. As economies develop, healthcare spending tends to increase, but significant disparities exist between different health financing systems.

Forecasting future health spending is essential for effective policy making, identifying potential financing gaps, and optimizing resource allocation. Policymakers and planners need reliable projections to make informed decisions about long-term investments, address shortfalls, and enhance growth in the healthcare sector. Understanding how funds will be collected and pooled is equally important, as reliance on out-of-pocket payments can create barriers to access and exacerbate medical impoverishment.

A recent study published in The Lancet provides a comprehensive analysis of future health spending trends in 184 countries, projecting expenditure levels, sources of funding, and potential financing gaps through 2040. The study highlights the expected surge in global health spending and emphasizes the need for policy changes and external support, especially in low-resource settings.

Global Health Spending: A Forecast to 2040

A global map illustrating the projected increases in health spending across different countries through interconnected glowing nodes.

The study, conducted by the Global Burden of Disease Health Financing Collaborator Network, paints a picture of substantial growth in global health spending over the next two decades. Researchers extracted data on GDP, government spending, and health expenditure from 184 countries spanning from 1980 to 2015. Using ensemble modeling techniques, they projected these trends forward to 2040, estimating future GDP, government spending, and health spending by source.

Key findings from the study reveal:

Global health spending is expected to increase dramatically: From US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to US$24.24 trillion (UI 20.47–29.72) in 2040.
Upper-middle-income countries are projected to experience the fastest growth: At an annual rate of 5.3% (UI 4.1–6.8), driven by continued economic expansion and increased government investment.
Despite overall growth, disparities will persist: Health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, reaching only $195 (157-258) per capita in 2040.
Closing the spending gap requires significant investment: Reaching the spending levels of countries that prioritize health relative to their economic development would require an additional $321 (157-258) per capita in low-income countries.

These projections are based on current trends and relationships, suggesting that healthcare spending will remain variable and insufficient in some low-resource settings. Policy changes and external support are crucial to bridging the financing gap and ensuring equitable access to healthcare services.

Charting a Course Towards Sustainable Healthcare

The projected surge in global health spending presents both opportunities and challenges. While increased investment can improve access and health outcomes, it's crucial to ensure that resources are allocated efficiently and equitably. By understanding future spending trends and identifying potential financing gaps, policymakers and stakeholders can work together to create sustainable healthcare systems that meet the needs of all populations.

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Everything You Need To Know

How much is global health spending expected to increase by 2040, and what drives this increase?

Global health spending is projected to increase dramatically, from US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to US$24.24 trillion in 2040. This surge is primarily driven by economic expansion, particularly in upper-middle-income countries, where an annual growth rate of 5.3% is expected. Increased government investment in healthcare also contributes significantly to this rise in expenditure. However, without policy changes and external support, especially in low-resource settings, significant disparities in healthcare access will persist. The increase does not account for changes in technology or the epidemiological transition to non-communicable diseases.

What are the projected healthcare spending disparities between high-income and low-income countries by 2040, and what investment would be needed to close the gap?

Despite the overall growth in global health spending, significant disparities are expected to persist. Health spending per capita in low-income countries is projected to reach only $195 per capita in 2040. To reach the spending levels of countries that prioritize health relative to their economic development, an additional $321 per capita would be required in low-income countries. This gap highlights the critical need for policy changes and external support to ensure equitable access to healthcare services. The gap also fails to include many other important factors, such as climate change and changing disease conditions.

Why is it important to forecast future health spending, and how can policymakers use this information?

Forecasting future health spending is essential for effective policymaking, identifying potential financing gaps, and optimizing resource allocation. Policymakers and planners can use these projections to make informed decisions about long-term investments, address shortfalls, and enhance growth in the healthcare sector. Understanding how funds will be collected and pooled is equally important, as reliance on out-of-pocket payments can create barriers to access and exacerbate medical impoverishment. The models used to project the figures need to incorporate social and environmental factors, not just financial ones.

What are prepaid mechanisms and why are they important for healthcare access and equity?

Prepaid mechanisms involve pooling risk to ensure financial protection for healthcare costs. These mechanisms are crucial because they help to overcome financial barriers to healthcare access. When healthcare is primarily funded through out-of-pocket payments, it can lead to medical impoverishment, where individuals and families are forced into poverty due to healthcare expenses. By utilizing prepaid mechanisms, resources are pooled, providing a more equitable distribution of healthcare access and better health outcomes. The specific mechanics of these mechanisms, such as their governance and regulation, can greatly impact their overall effectiveness. It is important to remember that no mechanism is completely fair.

According to the Global Burden of Disease Health Financing Collaborator Network, what key data was extracted and what techniques were used to make the forecasts to 2040?

The Global Burden of Disease Health Financing Collaborator Network extracted data on GDP, government spending, and health expenditure from 184 countries spanning from 1980 to 2015. Using ensemble modeling techniques, they projected these trends forward to 2040, estimating future GDP, government spending, and health spending by source. This collaborative effort provides a comprehensive analysis of future health spending trends, highlighting the expected surge in global health spending and emphasizing the need for policy changes and external support, especially in low-resource settings. The models used are simplifications of real-world complexity, and their accuracy depends on the assumptions made and the data available.