Phoenix rising from ballot box, symbolizing post-conflict transition.

From Rebels to Representatives: Decoding the Electoral Success of Post-Conflict Parties

Reese Marlowe in Politics & Policy June 2025 • 4 min read.

"Unlock the secrets to how former rebel groups navigate the transition to politics and what factors determine their electoral fate."

The transition from rebel group to legitimate political party is a fascinating yet complex phenomenon, particularly in countries emerging from civil war. Understanding the dynamics of this transition is crucial for fostering stable and inclusive democracies. While many studies examine peace negotiations and power-sharing arrangements, few delve into the nitty-gritty of how these former rebel groups fare in the electoral arena. Do they thrive, fade away, or fundamentally alter the political landscape?

A groundbreaking research article by Carrie Manning and Ian Smith, published in Government and Opposition, sheds light on this critical question. Their study tracks the electoral performance of post-rebel parties across 37 countries and 286 elections from 1990 to 2016, offering valuable insights into the factors that drive their success or failure.

This article will break down Manning and Smith’s research, highlighting the key findings and exploring their implications for understanding post-conflict political development. By examining the organizational characteristics of these parties and the environments in which they compete, we can gain a deeper appreciation for the challenges and opportunities facing societies emerging from conflict.

What Makes a Rebel Group Electable? Unveiling the Key Factors

Phoenix rising from ballot box, symbolizing post-conflict transition.

Manning and Smith's research identifies several crucial factors influencing the electoral performance of post-rebel parties. These factors can be broadly categorized into organizational endowments and the external political environment. Let’s examine each in detail:

Organizational Endowments: These are the internal strengths and resources a party possesses, often shaped by their experiences during the conflict.

Prior Political Experience: Parties with roots in pre-war politics tend to perform better. They often retain organizational structures and knowledge that facilitate the transition to party politics.
Leadership Continuity: Maintaining wartime leaders in the initial post-war elections provides stability and recognition. However, relying too heavily on wartime figures can hinder adaptation to new circumstances in the long run.
Avoiding Breakaways: Parties formed as splinter groups from larger rebel movements often struggle to gain traction. A clear and consistent brand identity matters.
Military Position at War’s End: Victory on the battlefield translates into a significant electoral advantage. Defeated groups face an uphill battle, while those signing separate peace deals may be perceived as weak.

The Political Environment: This encompasses the external factors that shape a party's electoral prospects.

First Elections Matter: Shaping the Future of Post-Conflict Politics

Manning and Smith's research provides valuable insights for policymakers and peacebuilders. It underscores the importance of creating inclusive political environments where former rebel groups can constructively participate. Early elections, while carrying risks, can pave the way for long-term integration. By understanding the factors that contribute to electoral success, we can help these parties evolve into effective representatives of their constituencies, contributing to more stable and democratic societies. More research should focus on how voters are influenced.

About this Article -

This article was crafted using a human-AI hybrid and collaborative approach. AI assisted our team with initial drafting, research insights, identifying key questions, and image generation. Our human editors guided topic selection, defined the angle, structured the content, ensured factual accuracy and relevance, refined the tone, and conducted thorough editing to deliver helpful, high-quality information.See our About page for more information.

This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: 10.1017/gov.2018.34, Alternate LINK

Title: Electoral Performance By Post-Rebel Parties

Subject: Public Administration

Journal: Government and Opposition

Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)

Authors: Carrie Manning, Ian Smith

Published: 2018-11-05

Everything You Need To Know

What are the main factors that influence the electoral success of post-rebel parties according to this research?

According to the research, the success of post-rebel parties electorally depends on two key categories: organizational endowments and the external political environment. Organizational endowments include factors like prior political experience, leadership continuity, avoiding breakaways, and military position at war’s end. The political environment encompasses elements such as the timing and inclusivity of elections and the overall political landscape in the post-conflict setting.

How do 'organizational endowments' affect the ability of a former rebel group to succeed in elections?

Organizational endowments play a crucial role in determining the electability of former rebel groups. The presence of prior political experience allows parties to retain organizational structures which eases the transition into party politics. A military victory at wars end translates to electoral advantages while defeated groups face bigger struggles. Leadership continuity provides initial stability, avoiding breakaways ensures brand identity and consistency.

What are the implications of 'leadership continuity' for post-rebel parties in the long term?

Leadership continuity, where wartime leaders remain in charge during initial post-war elections, offers stability and immediate recognition. However, an over-reliance on these figures can impede the party's ability to adapt to new political realities and broaden its appeal beyond their established support base. This can create a barrier to attracting new voters and evolving the party's platform to address emerging issues in the post-conflict environment.

How do initial post-conflict elections impact the political integration of former rebel groups?

The research indicates that the timing of the first elections after a conflict significantly impacts the integration of former rebel groups into the political system. While early elections can be risky, they provide a crucial opportunity for these groups to participate constructively and pave the way for their long-term involvement in shaping the post-conflict political landscape. Inclusivity is a vital component.

What does research suggest about creating stable democracies from former rebel groups?

The findings emphasize the need for inclusive political environments. Creating pathways for former rebel groups to participate constructively can lead to their evolution into effective representatives of their constituencies. This fosters more stable and democratic societies. Further research is needed to fully understand the nuances of voter behavior and decision-making processes in post-conflict settings.