NFL Draft chessboard visualizing strategic player acquisitions.

Draft Day Dilemma: Are NFL Teams Overvaluing First-Round Picks?

Reese Marlowe in Culture & Society December 2025 • 4 min read.

"New Research Reveals the Surprising Value Found in Later Rounds of the NFL Draft"

The NFL Draft is a spectacle, a high-stakes gamble where teams invest heavily in the promise of future stars. For years, the prevailing belief has been that the highest draft picks, particularly those in the first round, are the surest path to success. Teams often trade up, sacrificing valuable assets, to secure these coveted selections, with the expectation of landing a game-changing player.

However, a recent study is challenging this long-held assumption. By analyzing player performance and contract data from the 2011 to 2013 NFL Drafts, researchers have uncovered a surprising trend: later-round picks may offer comparable, or even greater, value than their first-round counterparts. This revelation could have significant implications for how NFL teams approach the draft in the future.

This article dives deep into the findings of this study, exploring the data, the potential reasons behind this trend, and what it means for the future of NFL team-building. Whether you're a die-hard football fan, a fantasy football enthusiast, or simply interested in the intersection of sports and finance, this analysis will give you a new perspective on the NFL Draft.

The Data Doesn't Lie: Unpacking the Surprising Statistics

NFL Draft chessboard visualizing strategic player acquisitions.

The study, published in the Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research, focused on players drafted in the first three rounds of the 2011, 2012, and 2013 NFL Drafts. This timeframe is significant because it coincides with the implementation of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) in 2011, which restructured rookie contracts and significantly impacted player salaries.

Researchers collected a comprehensive dataset, including player statistics, contract details, and NFL Combine results. They then calculated a "value statistic" by dividing a player's performance outcomes by their salary cap hit over their first three NFL seasons. This metric allowed them to directly compare the on-field production of players against their financial cost to the team.

Contract Discrepancies: First-round picks command significantly higher average contract amounts, often exceeding those of later-round picks by at least $4,000,000.
Combine Standouts: First-rounders generally exhibit greater height and weight measurements at the NFL Combine.
Value Proposition: Second- and third-round picks often demonstrate significantly greater value statistics.

The results revealed a striking trend: While first-round picks certainly possess talent, their high salaries often don't translate into proportional on-field production compared to players drafted in later rounds. In several key positions such as quarterbacks, wide receivers, defensive tackles and cornerbacks, players drafted in the second and third rounds demonstrated significantly greater value statistics.

The New Draft Strategy: Trade Down and Find Hidden Gems

This research suggests a potential paradigm shift in how NFL teams approach the draft. While the allure of a top pick is undeniable, the data indicates that teams may be better served by trading down, accumulating more picks in the second and third rounds, and focusing on identifying undervalued talent. By adopting a more strategic and data-driven approach, teams can maximize their return on investment and build a more competitive roster without breaking the bank.

About this Article -

This article was crafted using a human-AI hybrid and collaborative approach. AI assisted our team with initial drafting, research insights, identifying key questions, and image generation. Our human editors guided topic selection, defined the angle, structured the content, ensured factual accuracy and relevance, refined the tone, and conducted thorough editing to deliver helpful, high-quality information.See our About page for more information.

This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: 10.1519/jsc.0000000000002045, Alternate LINK

Title: What Is The Value Of A National Football League Draft Pick? An Analysis Based On Changes Made In The Collective Bargaining Agreement

Subject: Physical Therapy, Sports Therapy and Rehabilitation

Journal: Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research

Publisher: Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)

Authors: Matthew J. Kraeutler, Trevor J. Carver, John W. Belk, Eric C. Mccarty

Published: 2018-06-01

Everything You Need To Know

What is the 'value statistic' mentioned and how is it calculated?

The study's "value statistic" is a calculated metric designed to evaluate the efficiency of NFL draft picks. It's determined by dividing a player's performance outcomes by their salary cap hit over their initial three NFL seasons. This approach allows for a direct comparison between a player's on-field contribution and their financial cost to the team, revealing whether a player's performance justifies their salary.

What is the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) and how does it affect NFL draft valuations?

The Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) significantly impacts NFL draft valuations due to its restructuring of rookie contracts, especially after the 2011 implementation. The CBA put a cap on rookie salaries. Prior to this agreement, top draft picks received extremely lucrative contracts, which often did not align with their on-field performance. This has implications on the value statistic, showing a better value from those players drafted in the later rounds.

What is the NFL Combine and what is its significance in the draft process?

The NFL Combine is a scouting event where college football players perform physical and mental tests in front of NFL coaches, general managers, and scouts. The combine provides insights into a player's athletic abilities, such as speed, agility, strength, and jumping ability. First-round picks generally exhibit greater height and weight measurements at the NFL Combine. While combine results can inform draft decisions, this information should be evaluated along with game film and other factors to assess a player's overall potential and fit within a team's scheme.

What does it mean for a team to 'trade down' in the NFL Draft, and why might they do it?

Trading down in the NFL Draft involves a team relinquishing its higher draft pick in exchange for multiple lower-round selections. This strategy is used to acquire more draft picks, increasing the chances of finding valuable players. The study suggests that teams can maximize their return on investment by trading down and accumulating picks in the second and third rounds where undervalued talent may be found.

What are the implications of this research for NFL teams' draft strategies?

The primary implication of this research is that NFL teams may be overvaluing first-round picks, potentially leading to inefficient resource allocation. The study suggests that teams should consider shifting their focus to identifying undervalued talent in later rounds and that the production of the second and third round picks have a greater return on investment. This involves a more strategic approach to team-building, prioritizing data analysis and scouting to uncover hidden gems and optimize their draft strategies.