Submarine cables connecting to Africa, symbolizing the debate over internet and employment.

Does Fast Internet Really Boost Employment in Africa? Rethinking the Connection

Nico Varela in Business & Economy June 2025 • 4 min read.

"A critical look at how submarine internet cables impact job markets, challenging assumptions about technology and economic growth in Africa."

The arrival of submarine internet cables on Africa's shores around 2010 was heralded as a game-changer, promising to boost employment and economic growth. Initial research seemed to confirm this optimism, suggesting a direct link between increased broadband access and more jobs. But is this connection as straightforward as it seems?

One influential study, by Hjort and Poulsen (HP19), framed this period as a natural experiment, finding positive impacts of broadband on employment and even nighttime light emissions, an indicator of economic activity. However, a closer look reveals that these results may not be as robust as initially believed. Alternative analyses and re-evaluations of the data paint a more complex picture, challenging the assumed benefits of fast internet.

This article dives into a critical re-examination of the evidence, questioning the direct link between fast internet and employment in Africa. By exploring alternative data interpretations and methodological nuances, we aim to provide a more nuanced understanding of the true impact of broadband on the continent's job markets.

The Flaws in the Fiber: Questioning the 'Treatment Zone'

Submarine cables connecting to Africa, symbolizing the debate over internet and employment.

One of the primary points of contention lies in how researchers define and measure access to broadband. The original study defined the 'treatment zone' as areas within a mere 560 meters (0.005°) of a fiber optic line. This narrow definition invites several criticisms:

Technological Reality: The 560-meter radius lacks a clear basis in the technical capabilities of internet infrastructure. Both wired and wireless technologies can deliver broadband services far beyond this limited range.

Asymmetrical Zones: The control zone, extending up to 11 kilometers (0.1°), is disproportionately larger, creating an imbalance in the analysis.
Data Limitations: The precision implied by the narrow treatment zone is often illusory, as many data sources rely on place names or districts that exceed this scale. Even GPS data can have kilometer-scale inaccuracies.
Reduced Power: By focusing on such a small area, the study reduces its statistical power, potentially missing broader impacts of broadband access.

To address these issues, alternative approaches propose widening the treatment zone to 0.05° or 0.1° from fiber lines or network nodes. This aligns better with the actual reach of broadband services and acknowledges the limitations of available data. Using 3G coverage maps as a proxy for broadband access, these wider zones demonstrate a stronger correlation with connectivity, suggesting they more accurately reflect the true geography of broadband in Africa.

Beyond the Cable: A More Realistic View of Technology and Employment

Ultimately, re-evaluating the data suggests a weaker connection between undersea cable connections and increased employment in Africa than initially claimed. The lack of robustness to changes in the treatment zone definition raises serious questions about the direct impact of fast internet on job creation. While technology undoubtedly plays a role in economic development, it's essential to avoid simplistic assumptions and consider the complex interplay of factors that shape employment opportunities.

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This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2401.13694,

Title: The Arrival Of Fast Internet And Employment In Africa: Comment

Subject: econ.gn q-fin.ec

Authors: David Roodman

Published: 17-01-2024

Everything You Need To Know

What was the initial assumption about the arrival of submarine internet cables in Africa around 2010?

The arrival of submarine internet cables around 2010 in Africa was initially perceived as a game-changer, promising to significantly boost employment and economic growth across the continent. Initial studies suggested a direct correlation between increased broadband access facilitated by these cables and a rise in job opportunities. This optimistic view was based on the belief that faster internet speeds would spur economic activity, leading to job creation.

What were the key findings of the HP19 study, and why are they being re-evaluated?

The HP19 study, framed as a natural experiment, initially found positive impacts of broadband on employment and economic activity, indicated by nighttime light emissions. However, these findings are now being re-evaluated due to concerns about the methodology and data interpretation. Specifically, the study's definition of the 'treatment zone'—areas within 560 meters of a fiber optic line—is considered too narrow, potentially underestimating the actual reach of broadband services and the broader impact on employment.

Why is the definition of the 'treatment zone' in the original research a point of contention?

The narrow definition of the 'treatment zone', set at 560 meters from fiber optic lines, is a significant point of contention. Critics argue this range is not reflective of the technical capabilities of internet infrastructure. Both wired and wireless technologies can deliver broadband services much further than this limited area. Also, the size difference between the treatment and control zones creates an imbalance in the analysis, and the precision implied by this narrow zone is often unrealistic, given the limitations of available data sources. This narrow focus reduces the study's statistical power, potentially missing the wider impacts of broadband.

How do alternative approaches propose to improve the measurement of broadband access?

Alternative approaches suggest widening the 'treatment zone' to 0.05° or 0.1° from fiber lines or network nodes to better reflect the actual reach of broadband services. This change aligns with the geographical realities of internet access and acknowledges the limitations of available data. These alternative approaches also propose using 3G coverage maps as a proxy for broadband access. These broader zones demonstrate a stronger correlation with connectivity, suggesting a more accurate depiction of broadband's impact in Africa.

What is the ultimate conclusion regarding the direct link between fast internet and employment in Africa, and what does this imply for future studies?

The re-evaluation of data suggests a weaker connection between undersea cable connections and increased employment in Africa than previously claimed. The lack of robustness to changes in the 'treatment zone' definition raises serious questions about the direct impact of fast internet on job creation. It is essential to avoid simplistic assumptions and consider the complex interplay of factors, beyond just technology, that shape employment opportunities. This implies that future studies should employ more realistic definitions of broadband access, consider broader economic and social factors, and use robust methodologies to understand the true impact of technology on employment in Africa.