Did Chesa Boudin's Policies Really Cause a Crime Wave in San Francisco? The Data Speaks
"A new study dives deep into the numbers, challenging the narrative around the former DA's impact on crime rates and sparking a fresh debate about criminal justice reform."
Chesa Boudin's tenure as San Francisco's District Attorney was marked by intense controversy. Elected in January 2020 on a platform of progressive reform, including increased case diversions and reduced sentencing, Boudin quickly became a lightning rod for criticism. As crime rates in San Francisco began to climb, public sentiment turned against him, culminating in a recall election in the summer of 2022.
Critics argued that Boudin's policies were directly responsible for the rise in crime. Data from the San Francisco Police Department (SFPD) showed an 8.7% increase in reported violent crime incidents from 2020 to 2021, and a 9.3% increase in all reported crimes during the same period. High-profile incidents of property crime and anti-Asian hate crimes further fueled the perception that San Francisco was spiraling out of control under Boudin's leadership.
A recent study challenges this narrative, offering a more nuanced perspective on the factors contributing to San Francisco's crime trends during this period. By applying rigorous statistical analysis, the research delves into the actual impact of Boudin's policies, separating them from other potential influences such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings may surprise you.
Boudin's Impact: Lower Prosecutions, More Diversions
The study employs a statistical method called regression discontinuity design (RDD) to isolate the effects of Boudin's policies on key criminal justice outcomes. RDD is particularly useful in situations where there's a clear cutoff point – in this case, the start of Boudin's term – allowing researchers to compare outcomes just before and just after the change in administration.
- Reduction in Prosecutions and Convictions: The Boudin administration saw a 36% reduction in monthly prosecutions and a 21% reduction in monthly convictions for all crimes.
- Increase in Case Diversions: Monthly successful case diversions increased by 58% under Boudin. This suggests a greater emphasis on alternative resolutions to traditional prosecution.
- Violent Crime Trends: When looking specifically at violent crimes, the study found a 36% decrease in monthly prosecutions, a 7% decrease in convictions (though this wasn't statistically significant), and a 47% increase in successful case diversions.
Data vs. Perception: A Call for Nuance
This study highlights the complexities of linking specific policies to crime trends. While the data suggests that Boudin's administration did lead to fewer prosecutions and more diversions, it doesn't definitively prove that these changes caused the increase in crime that San Francisco experienced during that time. Other factors, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated economic and social disruptions, likely played a significant role.