Mosquito casting a shadow over city as a doctor examines dengue patient.

Dengue Danger: Spotting the Warning Signs Early to Save Lives

Lena Kashyap in Health & Wellness November 2025 • 4 min read.

"New risk scoring models can help doctors quickly identify adult dengue patients at high risk of fatal outcomes, emphasizing factors within the first week of illness."

Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral illness, poses a significant threat to global public health. Transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, the dengue virus exists in four serotypes, causing a spectrum of illness from mild flu-like symptoms to severe and potentially fatal complications. The global incidence of dengue has increased dramatically in recent decades, expanding into previously unaffected regions and placing billions at risk. Recognizing the signs of severe dengue and acting quickly is essential for saving lives.

While much attention has been paid to overall dengue mortality, there's a critical need to understand and address early deaths—those occurring within the first week of the illness. Identifying individuals at high risk during this initial period allows for timely and intensive medical intervention, potentially altering the course of the disease. This is particularly important as dengue can progress rapidly, and early treatment can significantly improve outcomes.

Recent research has focused on developing risk scoring models to predict early mortality in adult dengue patients. These models aim to provide clinicians with a practical tool to quickly assess a patient's risk level based on readily available clinical and laboratory data. By identifying high-risk individuals, these scoring systems can help prioritize resources, guide treatment decisions, and ultimately reduce the number of preventable deaths from dengue fever.

Decoding Dengue: Risk Factors and Scoring Models

Mosquito casting a shadow over city as a doctor examines dengue patient.

A recent study published in the Journal of Clinical Medicine retrospectively analyzed data from 1,086 adult dengue patients over a 12-year period. The researchers developed three risk scoring models to predict different outcomes:

These models use a combination of clinical observations and lab results to assign a risk score to each patient. A higher score indicates a greater likelihood of a severe outcome.

Model 1: Early Death (within 3 days of hospital presentation): This model focuses on identifying patients at immediate risk.
Model 2: Death within 7 Days of Illness Onset: This model aims to capture patients who may deteriorate rapidly within the first week.
Model 3: Overall Fatality: This model predicts the overall risk of death from dengue.

Here's a closer look at the key factors identified in each model and what they mean for patient care:

Empowering Clinicians, Saving Lives

These new risk scoring models represent a significant step forward in the fight against dengue fever. By providing clinicians with a practical and reliable tool to identify high-risk patients, these models can help ensure that those who need it most receive prompt and effective treatment. While further validation is needed, these findings offer hope for reducing dengue-related mortality and improving outcomes for patients worldwide.

About this Article -

This article was crafted using a human-AI hybrid and collaborative approach. AI assisted our team with initial drafting, research insights, identifying key questions, and image generation. Our human editors guided topic selection, defined the angle, structured the content, ensured factual accuracy and relevance, refined the tone, and conducted thorough editing to deliver helpful, high-quality information.See our About page for more information.

This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: 10.3390/jcm7110396, Alternate LINK

Title: Prognostic Factors In Adult Patients With Dengue: Developing Risk Scoring Models And Emphasizing Factors Associated With Death ≤7 Days After Illness Onset And ≤3 Days After Presentation

Subject: General Medicine

Journal: Journal of Clinical Medicine

Publisher: MDPI AG

Authors: Ing-Kit Lee, Chung-Hao Huang, Wen-Chi Huang, Yi-Chun Chen, Ching-Yen Tsai, Ko Chang, Yen-Hsu Chen

Published: 2018-10-28

Everything You Need To Know

What causes Dengue fever and why is early recognition important?

Dengue fever is caused by four serotypes of the dengue virus, which are transmitted to humans through the bites of Aedes mosquitoes. The severity of the illness can range from mild, flu-like symptoms to severe complications that can be fatal. Early recognition of symptoms and prompt medical intervention are crucial for improving patient outcomes.

How do the Dengue risk scoring models work, and what data are they based on?

The risk scoring models, including the model for early death within 3 days of hospital presentation, the model for death within 7 days of illness onset, and the model for overall fatality, utilize a combination of clinical observations and laboratory results to assign a risk score to each patient. A higher score indicates a greater likelihood of a severe outcome. These models were developed using data from 1,086 adult dengue patients over a 12-year period.

What are the differences between the early death, 7-day death, and overall fatality risk models for Dengue?

The early death model focuses on identifying patients at immediate risk within the first three days of hospital presentation. The model for death within 7 days of illness onset aims to capture patients who may deteriorate rapidly within the first week. The overall fatality model predicts the overall risk of death from dengue throughout the course of the illness.

How can the risk scoring models assist doctors in treating Dengue patients and improving outcomes?

These models can help clinicians prioritize resources and guide treatment decisions by identifying high-risk individuals who require more intensive medical intervention. Early identification allows for timely and appropriate treatment, which can significantly improve patient outcomes and potentially reduce the number of preventable deaths from dengue fever. Further validation is needed to assess the broad applicability of these models.

What are the broader implications of using risk scoring models in managing Dengue fever, and what future developments might we see?

The development and implementation of risk scoring models in dengue fever management highlight the importance of early detection and intervention in combating the disease. The models developed offer a practical tool for clinicians to assess patient risk, these models pave the way for further research and innovation in dengue management strategies, including the exploration of targeted therapies and preventive measures. Continuous monitoring and evaluation of the models' effectiveness are essential to ensure their ongoing relevance and impact on reducing dengue-related mortality.