A surreal maze symbolizing the complexities of sexual recidivism risk assessment, featuring intertwined paths of risk and protection.

Decoding Risk: How Experts Predict Sexual Recidivism

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Jordan Keane in Law & Justice December 2025 • 5 min read.

"An updated survey reveals the methods professionals use to assess the likelihood of sexual re-offense, crucial for informing legal and protective measures."


In the realm of forensic psychology, predicting the likelihood of sexual re-offense, known as sexual recidivism, is a critical task. Forensic evaluators play a vital role in helping legal and correctional systems make informed decisions about offender management and community safety. These professionals rely on a variety of tools and methods to assess risk, and their practices are continuously evolving as new research emerges. Understanding these assessment techniques is essential for anyone involved in the legal system, social work, or community advocacy.

A recent study surveyed forensic evaluators to understand their current practices in assessing sexual recidivism risk. This survey, conducted in 2017, builds upon similar research from 2013 to identify trends in instrument usage, the adoption of new assessment tools, and the consideration of factors like criminogenic needs and protective factors. By comparing current practices with those from the past, we can gain insights into how the field is adapting to new knowledge and challenges.

The results of this survey shed light on several key trends. Most notably, evaluators are increasingly adopting modern actuarial instruments like the Static-99R and Static-2002R, which are designed to provide more accurate and reliable risk assessments. There's also a growing emphasis on assessing criminogenic needs, which are factors that contribute to an individual's likelihood of re-offending, and protective factors, which can mitigate that risk. These changes reflect a broader shift toward evidence-based practices in forensic psychology.

What Tools Do Professionals Use to Predict Sexual Recidivism?

A surreal maze symbolizing the complexities of sexual recidivism risk assessment, featuring intertwined paths of risk and protection.

Forensic evaluators use a variety of instruments to assess the risk of sexual recidivism. These instruments can be broadly categorized into actuarial measures and Structured Professional Judgment (SPJ) instruments. Actuarial measures use statistical data to predict risk based on specific factors, while SPJ instruments rely on professional judgment guided by structured frameworks. The survey revealed which instruments are most commonly used and how their usage has changed over time.

The Static-99R and Static-2002R are among the most widely used actuarial instruments. These tools assess risk based on static factors, which are historical characteristics that don't change over time, such as prior offenses and victim characteristics. However, evaluators are also increasingly considering dynamic factors, which are changeable characteristics like an offender's attitudes, behaviors, and social support. Instruments like the STABLE-2007 are used to assess these dynamic factors.

  • Static-99R: A widely used actuarial tool assessing risk based on historical factors.
  • Static-2002R: Similar to Static-99R, but updated to include more recent research findings.
  • STABLE-2007: Focuses on dynamic risk factors that can change over time.
  • SVR-20: A Structured Professional Judgment (SPJ) tool that guides professional decision-making.
  • VRS-SO: Another SPJ instrument that assesses risk and evaluates therapeutic change.
While actuarial instruments are popular, a significant minority of evaluators still use SPJ instruments. These tools allow professionals to incorporate their clinical judgment and consider the unique circumstances of each case. Some evaluators also use a combination of actuarial and SPJ instruments to get a more comprehensive assessment of risk. This multifaceted approach acknowledges that risk assessment is not solely a statistical calculation but also requires careful consideration of individual factors.

The Future of Risk Assessment

As forensic psychology continues to evolve, the assessment of sexual recidivism risk will likely become even more refined. Future research will focus on improving the accuracy and reliability of existing instruments, developing new tools to assess dynamic risk factors, and better understanding how to incorporate protective factors into the assessment process. By staying informed about these advances, professionals can ensure that they are using the most effective methods to protect communities and promote justice.

About this Article -

This article was crafted using a human-AI hybrid and collaborative approach. AI assisted our team with initial drafting, research insights, identifying key questions, and image generation. Our human editors guided topic selection, defined the angle, structured the content, ensured factual accuracy and relevance, refined the tone, and conducted thorough editing to deliver helpful, high-quality information.See our About page for more information.

This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: 10.1177/1079063218800474, Alternate LINK

Title: How Do Professionals Assess Sexual Recidivism Risk? An Updated Survey Of Practices

Subject: Psychiatry and Mental health

Journal: Sexual Abuse

Publisher: SAGE Publications

Authors: Sharon M. Kelley, Gina Ambroziak, David Thornton, Robert M. Barahal

Published: 2018-09-23

Everything You Need To Know

1

What specific tools do professionals use to assess the risk of sexual recidivism?

Forensic evaluators use a variety of tools to predict the likelihood of sexual re-offense. These include actuarial measures like the Static-99R and Static-2002R, which rely on statistical data of static risk factors. Additionally, evaluators employ Structured Professional Judgment (SPJ) instruments, such as the SVR-20 and VRS-SO, to incorporate their clinical judgment. The STABLE-2007 is also utilized to assess dynamic factors that can change over time.

2

Why are the Static-99R and Static-2002R important in predicting sexual re-offense?

The Static-99R and Static-2002R are crucial tools in assessing sexual recidivism risk because they provide a standardized way to evaluate static risk factors. These are historical elements that are unlikely to change, offering a baseline for predicting future behavior. Their widespread use indicates a move towards more data-driven and objective risk assessments, which assists in legal and correctional decisions.

3

What is the significance of the STABLE-2007 in the context of risk assessment?

The STABLE-2007 is significant because it focuses on dynamic factors in assessing the risk of sexual recidivism. Dynamic factors are changeable elements like an offender's attitudes, behaviors, and social support. By assessing these, evaluators gain insights into an offender's current state, helping to identify areas for intervention and measure progress during treatment or supervision. This approach allows for tailored intervention strategies.

4

What role do Structured Professional Judgment (SPJ) instruments play in the assessment of sexual recidivism?

Structured Professional Judgment (SPJ) instruments, like the SVR-20 and VRS-SO, guide professional decision-making in assessing the likelihood of sexual re-offense. While actuarial instruments offer statistical predictions, SPJ tools allow evaluators to consider the unique circumstances of each case, personal experiences, and clinical judgment. This balanced approach provides a more nuanced understanding of an individual's risk, incorporating both data and professional expertise.

5

Why is it important to consider both criminogenic needs and protective factors in risk assessment?

Criminogenic needs are factors that contribute to an individual's likelihood of re-offending, while protective factors can mitigate that risk. Assessing both is important because it helps evaluators develop comprehensive risk assessments. By understanding both needs and protective factors, professionals can create targeted intervention plans, addressing the root causes of offending while building on an individual's strengths and resources. This approach helps the legal and correctional systems manage offenders more effectively.

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