$Mathematical model overlaid on a child's face, symbolizing pertussis research.$

Decoding Pertussis: How Math Models Are Key to Solving Whooping Cough Resurgence

Lena Kashyap in Health & Wellness June 2025 • 3 min read.

"Mathematical models offer a powerful way to understand the complexities of pertussis (whooping cough) and improve vaccination strategies."

Pertussis, commonly known as whooping cough, is a highly contagious respiratory infection. While once thought to be well-controlled by vaccines, pertussis has made a comeback in recent years, leaving public health officials searching for answers. The disease, characterized by a severe cough that can last for weeks, poses a significant threat, especially to infants and young children.

The development of whole-cell pertussis vaccines in the 1930s was a game-changer, dramatically reducing the incidence of whooping cough. However, since the mid-1970s, despite high vaccination rates, pertussis has re-emerged, prompting scientists to investigate the reasons behind this resurgence.

One of the key tools in understanding and combating pertussis is mathematical modeling. By creating these models, researchers can simulate how the disease spreads, how immunity changes over time, and how different interventions might impact the course of the epidemic. This article explores how mathematical models are being used to unravel the complexities of pertussis and design more effective prevention strategies.

Why is Whooping Cough Making a Comeback? The Role of Mathematical Models

Mathematical model overlaid on a child's face, symbolizing pertussis research.

Early studies of pertussis recognized the complexities of its epidemiology. For example, incidence data from Massachusetts show irregular patterns with notable peaks, particularly among adolescents and adults. This shift in the age distribution of cases suggests that traditional control measures may not be enough.

Mathematical models provide a framework to understand these trends by translating processes at different scales. They consider individual disease history and population-level dynamics, using equations to represent the numbers of individuals with different infection or immunity statuses.

Tracking Infection Kinetics: Models help track how infections spread and how susceptible individuals become infected over time.
Understanding Immunity: They allow researchers to examine the long-term effects of vaccination and natural infection.
Considering Heterogeneities: These models account for different contact rates between age groups, which can affect infection risks.

However, building accurate models requires careful consideration of various parameters, such as the duration of infection and vaccine-derived immunity. Because these parameters are not always known, models are tested against real-world data to find the most likely values.

The Future of Pertussis Control

About this Article -

This article was crafted using a human-AI hybrid and collaborative approach. AI assisted our team with initial drafting, research insights, identifying key questions, and image generation. Our human editors guided topic selection, defined the angle, structured the content, ensured factual accuracy and relevance, refined the tone, and conducted thorough editing to deliver helpful, high-quality information.See our About page for more information.

This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: 10.1080/21645515.2018.1549432, Alternate LINK

Title: Commentary: Resolving Pertussis Resurgence And Vaccine Immunity Using Mathematical Transmission Models

Subject: Pharmacology

Journal: Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics

Publisher: Informa UK Limited

Authors: M. Domenech De Cellès, A. A. King, P. Rohani

Published: 2018-12-20

Everything You Need To Know

How did whole-cell pertussis vaccines impact the incidence of Whooping Cough, and why has it re-emerged despite high vaccination rates?

The development of whole-cell pertussis vaccines in the 1930s was a significant advancement, dramatically reducing the incidence of pertussis, commonly known as whooping cough. However, since the mid-1970s, despite high vaccination rates, pertussis has re-emerged. This resurgence has prompted scientists to investigate the reasons behind it. Mathematical models are key tools for understanding the re-emergence of pertussis, helping scientists unravel the complexities of its spread and design more effective prevention strategies. These models consider various factors, including how the disease spreads, how immunity changes over time, and the impact of interventions such as booster doses, to protect communities effectively.

What role do mathematical models play in understanding the spread of Pertussis, and what specific factors do they help analyze?

Mathematical models are crucial in understanding and combating pertussis. They simulate how the disease spreads, how immunity changes over time, and how different interventions might impact the course of the epidemic. These models translate processes at different scales, considering individual disease history and population-level dynamics. Specifically, they help track infection kinetics, understand the long-term effects of vaccination and natural infection, and account for different contact rates between age groups. By using equations to represent the numbers of individuals with different infection or immunity statuses, models allow researchers to analyze the impact of booster doses, designing control strategies to protect communities.

Why is it important to consider heterogeneities and other parameters when building mathematical models for Pertussis?

Building accurate mathematical models requires careful consideration of various parameters, such as the duration of infection and vaccine-derived immunity. These models account for different contact rates between age groups, which can affect infection risks. Because these parameters are not always known, models are tested against real-world data to find the most likely values. The use of mathematical models allows researchers to examine the long-term effects of vaccination and natural infection.

Can you explain the irregular patterns and age distribution shifts observed in Whooping Cough incidence, and what implications do these have for control measures?

Early studies of pertussis recognized the complexities of its epidemiology, noting irregular patterns with notable peaks, particularly among adolescents and adults. This shift in the age distribution of cases suggests that traditional control measures, such as those used prior to the re-emergence, may not be enough. Mathematical models provide a framework to understand these trends by translating processes at different scales. They consider individual disease history and population-level dynamics, using equations to represent the numbers of individuals with different infection or immunity statuses. This allows for a deeper understanding of how the disease spreads across different age groups and the effectiveness of various interventions.

What are the future directions for controlling Pertussis, and what specific data is needed to improve these efforts?

While mathematical models have provided valuable insights into pertussis resurgence, questions remain. More precise estimates of the duration of immunity conferred by different vaccines are needed. By applying these methods to more recent data, we can better understand the impact of booster doses and design future control strategies to protect our communities. Mathematical models help track infection kinetics and consider different contact rates between age groups, providing a framework for designing and evaluating more effective prevention strategies. Further research and data analysis are crucial for refining these models and developing more effective control measures against pertussis.