Digital illustration symbolizing progress in ALS research.

Decoding ALS: A New Nomogram Predicts Longer Survival

Soraya Malik in Health & Wellness December 2025 • 4 min read.

"Groundbreaking research identifies key factors and a novel prediction tool for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), offering hope for personalized treatment strategies."

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS), also known as Lou Gehrig's disease, presents a significant challenge to both patients and healthcare professionals. This progressive neurodegenerative disease, impacts nerve cells in the brain and spinal cord, leading to loss of muscle control. The course of ALS varies significantly from person to person, making it difficult to predict survival and tailor treatment plans effectively.

Better understanding of the factors that influence survival in ALS is crucial for both doctors and patients. Knowing what to expect can help patients to make informed decisions about their care and help physicians to develop better treatment options.

Now, recent research published in Aging and Disease offers hope in predicting the course of ALS. This study, conducted by researchers at West China Hospital, Sichuan University, has identified key factors associated with longer survival in ALS patients and developed a novel tool called a nomogram to predict individual outcomes.

What Factors Predict Longer Survival in ALS?

Digital illustration symbolizing progress in ALS research.

Researchers conducted a comprehensive study involving 553 ALS patients, divided into a training set and a validation set. The goal was to identify risk factors associated with survival. Through rigorous statistical analysis, they pinpointed seven independent predictors of longer survival:

These risk factors were discovered through testing over a set period. The testing factors are:

Age of Onset: Later age of onset tended to correlate with longer survival.
Rate of Disease Progression: Slower disease progression, as measured by the ALS Functional Rating Scale-Revised (ALSFRS-R), was a positive indicator.
Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) Level: Lower HbA1c levels, a marker of blood sugar control, were associated with increased survival.
Body Mass Index (BMI): Higher BMI appeared to offer a protective effect.
Creatinine Levels: Elevated creatinine levels, often linked to muscle mass, suggested better outcomes.
Creatine Kinase (CK): Higher levels of CK, an enzyme released from damaged muscle tissue, were also associated with longer survival.
Non-Invasive Positive Pressure Ventilation (NIPPV): The use of NIPPV, a form of respiratory support, significantly improved survival.

These findings highlight the complex interplay of factors that influence the progression of ALS. While some factors, such as age of onset and disease progression, are inherent to the individual, others, like HbA1c levels and BMI, can potentially be modified through lifestyle interventions.

Hope for the Future: Personalized Treatment Strategies

This research marks a significant step forward in understanding ALS and predicting individual outcomes. The nomogram developed in this study provides a valuable tool for clinicians to assess prognosis and tailor treatment plans to each patient's unique circumstances. By integrating key factors like age of onset, disease progression, and biomarker levels, the nomogram offers a more personalized approach to ALS care, potentially leading to improved survival and quality of life.

About this Article -

This article was crafted using a human-AI hybrid and collaborative approach. AI assisted our team with initial drafting, research insights, identifying key questions, and image generation. Our human editors guided topic selection, defined the angle, structured the content, ensured factual accuracy and relevance, refined the tone, and conducted thorough editing to deliver helpful, high-quality information.See our About page for more information.

This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: 10.14336/ad.2017.1016, Alternate LINK

Title: Prognostic Nomogram Associated With Longer Survival In Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Patients

Subject: Cell Biology

Journal: Aging and disease

Publisher: Aging and Disease

Authors: Qian-Qian Wei, Yongping Chen, Xueping Chen, Bei Cao, Ruwei Ou, Lingyu Zhang, Yanbing Hou, Huifang Shang

Published: 2018-01-01

Everything You Need To Know

What is Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS), and why is it important to understand?

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis, or ALS, also known as Lou Gehrig's disease, is a progressive neurodegenerative disease that affects nerve cells in the brain and spinal cord. This causes a loss of muscle control. Understanding ALS is significant because it varies greatly from person to person, making it difficult to predict survival rates and plan treatments. Identifying the key factors associated with survival is crucial for tailoring treatment plans.

What key factors were identified in the study as predictors of longer survival in ALS patients?

The study identified seven independent predictors of longer survival in ALS patients: later age of onset, slower disease progression measured by the ALS Functional Rating Scale-Revised (ALSFRS-R), lower Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels, higher Body Mass Index (BMI), elevated creatinine levels, higher Creatine Kinase (CK) levels, and the use of Non-Invasive Positive Pressure Ventilation (NIPPV). These factors are important because they highlight the complex nature of ALS and the potential for personalized treatment strategies.

What is a nomogram, and what are the implications of its use in ALS care?

A nomogram is a prediction tool developed to assess prognosis and tailor treatment plans to each patient's unique circumstances. It integrates key factors, such as age of onset, disease progression, and biomarker levels, to offer a more personalized approach to ALS care. The implications of using a nomogram include the potential for improved survival rates and quality of life for ALS patients, by assisting doctors in making data-driven treatment choices.

What is ALSFRS-R and how does it relate to ALS?

ALS Functional Rating Scale-Revised, or ALSFRS-R, is a method to measure the rate of disease progression in ALS patients. The ALSFRS-R is important because it provides a standardized way to assess how quickly a patient's physical function is declining. Slower disease progression is a positive indicator for longer survival, making this scale a crucial part of predicting individual outcomes and informing treatment decisions. While the study only used the rate of change based on ALSFRS-R the actual score itself is a strong indicator of survival.

What is NIPPV, and why is it important for individuals with ALS?

Non-Invasive Positive Pressure Ventilation, known as NIPPV, is a form of respiratory support that significantly improves survival in ALS patients. NIPPV is important because ALS often weakens the muscles needed for breathing. NIPPV helps patients breathe more easily, improving their quality of life and extending their survival. The implications of NIPPV use are significant, as it provides a tangible way to manage a critical aspect of the disease and positively impact patient outcomes.