Airplane soaring through calendar pages and price tags, symbolizing air ticket prices and seasonality.

Decoding Airfare: How Seasonality and Global Events Impact Ticket Prices

Nico Varela in Business & Economy August 2025 • 4 min read.

"A Deep Dive into Brazilian Air Travel Before and After the Pandemic"

Have you ever wondered why air ticket prices seem to fluctuate so wildly? Price seasonality, the phenomenon where the cost of goods and services changes throughout the year, plays a significant role. Factors like weather, holidays, local events, and even our spending habits all contribute to these shifts.

For airlines, understanding these seasonal trends is crucial. It allows them to strategically plan flight schedules, manage capacity, and adjust fares to maximize profits during peak seasons and minimize losses during slower periods. Airports and air traffic control also rely on these insights to ensure efficient operations and resource allocation. But what happens when a global event disrupts these established patterns?

The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly impacted the air transport industry, potentially altering seasonal patterns due to changes in supply chains and consumer behavior. This article delves into a recent study analyzing price seasonality in Brazilian air transport, with a focus on how COVID-19 influenced pricing strategies within the domestic market. By examining pre- and post-pandemic data, we can uncover the shifts and variations that define the new landscape of air travel.

The Seasonal Symphony of Airfare: Understanding the Key Influencers

Airplane soaring through calendar pages and price tags, symbolizing air ticket prices and seasonality.

Several factors influence the seasonal fluctuations of air ticket prices. A study focusing on domestic city pairs in Brazil from 2013 to 2023, found that fuel prices (FuelPrice), market concentration (MktConc), and aircraft utilization (LoadFactor) all drive an increase in average airfare. In contrast, higher traffic volume (PaxDens) tends to reduce costs, enabling airlines to leverage economies of scale and incorporate those efficiencies into pricing.

The comprehensive study from the Aeronautics Institute of Technology (NECTAR-ITA) on the Harvard Dataverse portal titled AVDATA-BR-CP aggregates Brazilian aviation data into domestic city pairs monthly, based on data from the National Civil Aviation Agency (ANAC). The factors above were analyzed using commands from the Stata software language in the data panel comprising of 487 city pairs and 131 periods totaling 55,950 observations.

Fuel Prices: Higher fuel costs invariably translate to pricier tickets.
Market Concentration: Less competition among airlines can lead to increased fares.
Load Factor: Maximizing seat occupancy over fare increases helps optimise profits in peak seasons.
Traffic Volume: Higher passenger numbers per flight results in reduced price per person.

The elephant in the room, the COVID-19 pandemic, also had a significant impact. The analysis suggests a 16-17% reduction in average passenger fares during the pandemic period. This price decrease could reflect airlines' survival strategies amidst plummeting traffic. Furthermore, the study identified a long-term upward price trend (Trend) of approximately 2% every five years, indicating a gradual increase in airfare costs over time. Another key takeaway was a substantial price increase during the research period before the high season.

Navigating the Future of Air Travel: Strategies for Airlines and Passengers

Understanding price seasonality is crucial for both airlines and passengers. By incorporating these insights into revenue management practices, airlines can better accommodate varying seasonal demand stemming from both leisure and business travel. Passengers can leverage this knowledge to find the best deals by planning their trips during off-peak seasons or taking advantage of promotional offers. Ultimately, staying informed about the factors that influence airfare can empower both travelers and airlines to make smarter decisions and navigate the ever-changing landscape of air travel.

About this Article -

This article was crafted using a human-AI hybrid and collaborative approach. AI assisted our team with initial drafting, research insights, identifying key questions, and image generation. Our human editors guided topic selection, defined the angle, structured the content, ensured factual accuracy and relevance, refined the tone, and conducted thorough editing to deliver helpful, high-quality information.See our About page for more information.

This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: 10.5281/zenodo.10659441,

Title: The Seasonality Of Air Ticket Prices Before And After The Pandemic

Subject: econ.gn q-fin.ec

Authors: Alessandro V. M. Oliveira

Published: 21-02-2024

Everything You Need To Know

What is price seasonality and how does it impact airfare?

Price seasonality refers to the fluctuation in the cost of goods and services, including airfare, throughout the year. Several factors drive this, including weather, holidays, local events, and consumer spending habits. Airlines leverage this understanding to strategically plan flight schedules, manage capacity, and adjust fares. For example, during peak seasons, airlines might increase prices due to high demand. Conversely, during off-peak seasons, they may lower prices to attract more passengers. This understanding enables both airlines and passengers to make informed decisions regarding pricing and travel planning.

How did the COVID-19 pandemic affect airfare pricing in Brazil, according to the study?

The study analyzing price seasonality in Brazilian air transport revealed a significant impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on airfare. The analysis suggested a 16-17% reduction in average passenger fares during the pandemic period. This price decrease could reflect airlines' survival strategies amidst plummeting traffic. Furthermore, the study also identified a long-term upward price trend of approximately 2% every five years, indicating a gradual increase in airfare costs over time. The pandemic disrupted established seasonal patterns due to changes in supply chains and consumer behavior.

What specific factors were identified as influencing airfare prices in the Brazilian domestic market?

The study, focusing on domestic city pairs in Brazil from 2013 to 2023, identified several key factors. Fuel Prices (FuelPrice), Market Concentration (MktConc), and Aircraft Utilization (LoadFactor) were found to drive an increase in average airfare. Conversely, higher Traffic Volume (PaxDens) tended to reduce costs, enabling airlines to leverage economies of scale. Understanding these factors helps to understand why prices fluctuate and how airlines make their decisions. The data was aggregated by the Aeronautics Institute of Technology (NECTAR-ITA) on the Harvard Dataverse portal using data from the National Civil Aviation Agency (ANAC).

How does the Load Factor influence airfare, and why is it important for airlines?

Load Factor refers to the measure of how efficiently an airline is utilizing its aircraft by maximizing seat occupancy. The study showed that a higher Load Factor drives an increase in average airfare. Airlines aim to optimize profits, especially during peak seasons, by maximizing seat occupancy and potentially increasing fares. However, airlines also need to consider the relationship with Traffic Volume (PaxDens) to find an optimal balance. High Load Factor is important for airlines to maximize revenue from each flight and improve profitability.

Besides the COVID-19 impact, what other long-term trends were observed regarding airfare?

Beyond the immediate impact of the pandemic, the study identified a long-term upward price trend (Trend) of approximately 2% every five years, indicating a gradual increase in airfare costs over time. Another key takeaway was a substantial price increase during the research period before the high season. This information suggests that airfare costs are subject to long-term inflation. Understanding these trends is critical for passengers planning travel, and airlines need to adapt their pricing strategies accordingly, balancing demand, operational costs, and long-term financial health.