Container ships navigating turbulent seas, overlaid with economic charts.

Container Shipping Rates: Are We Headed for Another Crisis?

Soraya Malik in Business & Economy December 2025 • 4 min read.

"A deep dive into historical data reveals patterns that could predict the future of global trade."

Global trade relies heavily on container shipping, a sector that has transformed the world economy. According to recent data, container shipping accounts for substantial portions of imports and exports, highlighting its crucial role in international commerce. Understanding the dynamics of this industry is essential for businesses and policymakers alike.

The container shipping industry presents a unique opportunity for economic analysis. Since its beginnings in the mid-1960s, the industry has seen numerous firms enter and exit the market. Moreover, various countries have laws that provide exemptions for international cartels and consortia, known as "shipping conferences" and "shipping alliances."

Despite its importance, there is a lack of comprehensive data on freight rates and shipping quantities, especially for the period between 1966 and 1990. This data gap limits our ability to conduct thorough quantitative research on the industry's evolution. This article aims to bridge this gap by presenting a unified dataset that combines information from published books and publicly available sources.

Unpacking the Data: Key Trends in Container Shipping

Container ships navigating turbulent seas, overlaid with economic charts.

The newly compiled dataset combines route-year-level freight rates with shipping quantities for the six major routes, as well as industry-year-level data on newbuilding, secondhand, and scrap prices. Spanning from 1966 to 2009, this dataset offers a comprehensive view of the container shipping industry's development.

To ensure the accuracy and reliability of the data, a rigorous process was followed. This involved detailed instructions on merging various datasets and validating the data's consistency with the help of industry experts and former executives who possess historical knowledge and experience. This validation process confirms that Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU)-based price data provide a reasonable benchmark measure, even though container freight rates were not determined by container units in the 1970s.

Freight Rate Fluctuations: The container freight rate generally decreased with fluctuations between 1966 and 1990, with more instability on the Asia-Europe routes.
Shipping Quantity Growth: Shipping quantities increased steadily between 1973 and 1990 due to increased containerized cargo and larger ships.
Impact of the Suez Canal: The reopening of the Suez Canal in 1976 increased container shipping services, affecting freight rates.
Influence of Shipping Conferences: Shipping conferences had a strong influence on Asia-Europe trade in the 1970s and early 1980s.

Furthermore, analysis of industry-year-level newbuilding, secondhand, and scrap prices reveals additional insights. The newbuilding price peaked in 1974, 1980, 1987, and 1991, while secondhand prices decreased sharply between 1974 and 1979 but remained stable afterward. Scrap prices remained stable relative to other price variables.

Navigating Future Seas: The Path Ahead

The container shipping industry has a history marked by economic shifts and policy changes. By examining the data and structural breaks, we gain insights into the container crisis and the dynamics of shipping cartels. This knowledge can inform future research and policy decisions, helping stakeholders navigate the complexities of this vital industry. As global trade continues to evolve, understanding the forces that shape container shipping will be crucial for maintaining stability and promoting sustainable growth.

About this Article -

This article was crafted using a human-AI hybrid and collaborative approach. AI assisted our team with initial drafting, research insights, identifying key questions, and image generation. Our human editors guided topic selection, defined the angle, structured the content, ensured factual accuracy and relevance, refined the tone, and conducted thorough editing to deliver helpful, high-quality information.See our About page for more information.

This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: 10.1016/j.tre.2023.103186.,

Title: Unified Container Shipping Industry Data From 1966: Freight Rate, Shipping Quantity, Newbuilding, Secondhand, And Scrap Price

Subject: econ.gn q-fin.ec

Authors: Takuma Matsuda, Suguru Otani

Published: 29-11-2022

Everything You Need To Know

What is the significance of container shipping in global trade?

Container shipping plays a crucial role in international commerce, handling substantial portions of both imports and exports. Its importance is underscored by the fact that it has transformed the world economy, making it a critical sector for businesses and policymakers to understand. Analyzing container shipping dynamics is essential for anticipating potential crises and maintaining stability within global trade networks.

How does the historical data on freight rates and shipping quantities help predict future market trends?

Historical data, including freight rates and shipping quantities, along with economic shifts, provides insights into patterns that can help predict the future of global trade. Analyzing fluctuations in container freight rates, shipping quantity growth, and the impact of events like the Suez Canal's reopening allows for a deeper understanding of the industry's dynamics. This understanding is crucial for anticipating potential crises and informing future research and policy decisions.

What were the key trends in container shipping between 1966 and 2009 according to the dataset?

Between 1966 and 2009, several key trends were observed. Container freight rates generally decreased with fluctuations, particularly on the Asia-Europe routes between 1966 and 1990. Shipping quantities steadily increased from 1973 to 1990 due to containerized cargo and larger ships. The reopening of the Suez Canal in 1976 influenced freight rates by increasing container shipping services. Shipping conferences significantly impacted Asia-Europe trade during the 1970s and early 1980s. Newbuilding, secondhand, and scrap prices also provided insights into the industry's development, with newbuilding prices peaking in specific years.

How did the Suez Canal's reopening affect container shipping?

The reopening of the Suez Canal in 1976 increased container shipping services. This impacted freight rates, which can be understood by analyzing the available data. The ability of the canal to facilitate increased trade and shipping routes provided new opportunities for container shipping, affecting the market dynamics.

What are 'shipping conferences' and how did they influence the container shipping industry?

Shipping conferences, along with shipping alliances, are cartels and consortia that have been granted exemptions in certain countries. These conferences significantly influenced the Asia-Europe trade, particularly during the 1970s and early 1980s. They played a crucial role in shaping market dynamics and influencing freight rates within the container shipping industry. Their activities are key to understanding historical market behavior and predicting future trends. They provided a structured framework for trade, but also introduced complexities in competition and pricing.