Surreal illustration symbolizing the impact of credit scores on voting decisions.

Can Your Credit Score Influence the Election? The Surprising Link Between Finances and Voting

Mira Elwood in Politics & Policy September 2025 • 4 min read.

"Uncover how financial uncertainty sways voters and shapes political outcomes in the U.S."

In the United States, the opportunity to climb the social ladder and achieve the "American dream" is a cornerstone of the nation's ethos. Access to credit and home ownership have long been considered essential pillars of socioeconomic mobility, enabling families to build wealth and secure their financial futures. But what if the ability to obtain credit isn't just a matter of personal finance? What if it also plays a significant role in shaping our political choices?

A recent study, "Credit and Voting," sheds light on a fascinating and previously underexplored connection between access to credit and voting behavior in the U.S. The research reveals that uncertainty surrounding credit access can significantly influence voters, often pushing them toward more conservative candidates and reshaping the political landscape.

Using a comprehensive dataset of credit reports and election outcomes, the study uncovers how fluctuations in credit access can sway voters, alter election results, and even shift the ideological positions of elected officials. This article delves into the key findings of the study, exploring the surprising ways in which our financial lives can impact our political decisions.

The Link Between Credit Access and Political Preference: How Uncertainty Drives Conservative Voting

Surreal illustration symbolizing the impact of credit scores on voting decisions.

The "Credit and Voting" study, authored by Eleonora Brandimarti, Giacomo De Giorgi, and Jeremy Laurent-Luchetti, establishes a compelling link between credit access and voting behavior. The researchers demonstrate that when voters face uncertainty in their ability to obtain credit, they tend to favor more conservative candidates.

To investigate this relationship, the researchers analyzed a 1% sample of the U.S. population with valid credit reports, linking credit access to voting outcomes in county-by-congressional districts between 2004 and 2016. They constructed measures of uncertainty in credit access based on credit score values where individuals experienced the most significant jumps in total credit amount.

Data-Driven Thresholds: The study identified specific credit score thresholds where access to credit tightened substantially.
Marginal Voters: The research focused on "marginal voters" located near these credit score thresholds, where uncertainty about credit access was highest.
Republican Shift: The study found that a 10 percentage point increase in the share of marginal voters led to a 2.7 percentage point increase in Republican votes and a corresponding 2.6 percentage point decrease in Democratic votes.
Conservative Rhetoric: Winning candidates in constituencies with high credit uncertainty tended to adopt more conservative rhetoric.

These findings suggest that voters facing financial insecurity are more likely to support candidates who advocate for policies that promote deregulation and easier access to credit, often associated with conservative ideologies. The study highlights how economic anxieties can translate into political preferences.

The Bigger Picture: Credit Access as a Pillar of Social Mobility

The "Credit and Voting" study underscores the critical role of credit access in shaping both individual financial well-being and the broader political landscape. By demonstrating the link between financial insecurity and voting behavior, the research highlights the importance of policies that promote equitable access to credit and opportunity. As the authors note, credit access serves as a vital pillar of social mobility, and understanding its influence on voting behavior is essential for informed policymaking.

About this Article -

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This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2407.06808,

Title: Credit And Voting

Subject: econ.gn q-fin.ec

Authors: Eleonora Brandimarti, Giacomo De Giorgi, Jeremy Laurent-Lucchetti

Published: 09-07-2024

Everything You Need To Know

What is the primary finding of the "Credit and Voting" study?

The "Credit and Voting" study, authored by Eleonora Brandimarti, Giacomo De Giorgi, and Jeremy Laurent-Luchetti, establishes a link between credit access and voting behavior. Specifically, the research demonstrates that when voters face uncertainty regarding their ability to obtain credit, they tend to favor more conservative candidates. This suggests that financial insecurity significantly influences political preferences, often pushing voters towards policies associated with conservative ideologies like deregulation and easier credit access.

How did the "Credit and Voting" study measure uncertainty in credit access?

The study measured uncertainty in credit access by analyzing a 1% sample of the U.S. population and linking their credit access to voting outcomes between 2004 and 2016. Researchers identified specific credit score thresholds where access to credit tightened substantially, focusing on marginal voters near these thresholds. The fluctuations in total credit amount served as indicators of uncertainty. The study found that these marginal voters, experiencing uncertainty, significantly influenced the vote share for Republican candidates, demonstrating a direct link between credit access and political choices.

How does access to credit affect voting patterns according to the study?

According to the "Credit and Voting" study, uncertainty in credit access can significantly influence voters' political preferences. The research indicates that when voters experience uncertainty about their ability to obtain credit, they are more likely to support conservative candidates. This shift is linked to economic anxieties, with voters favoring policies promoting deregulation and easier credit access, which are often associated with conservative ideologies. The study revealed that a 10 percentage point increase in marginal voters led to a 2.7 percentage point increase in Republican votes and a corresponding 2.6 percentage point decrease in Democratic votes.

Who were the authors of the "Credit and Voting" study and what methodology did they use?

The "Credit and Voting" study was authored by Eleonora Brandimarti, Giacomo De Giorgi, and Jeremy Laurent-Luchetti. Their methodology involved analyzing a comprehensive dataset of credit reports and election outcomes. They examined a 1% sample of the U.S. population, linking credit access to voting outcomes in county-by-congressional districts from 2004 to 2016. The researchers constructed measures of uncertainty in credit access based on credit score values where individuals experienced significant changes in their total credit amount. They focused on marginal voters near credit score thresholds where access to credit tightened, revealing a significant correlation between credit access fluctuations and voting behavior.

What is the broader significance of the study's findings on the relationship between credit access and voting?

The broader significance of the "Credit and Voting" study lies in its demonstration of the critical role that credit access plays in shaping both individual financial well-being and the broader political landscape. By establishing a direct link between financial insecurity and voting behavior, the study underscores the importance of policies that promote equitable access to credit and opportunity. The findings highlight that credit access serves as a vital pillar of social mobility, and understanding its influence on voting behavior is essential for informed policymaking. The research suggests that when people are worried about their finances, it affects their voting behavior and potentially shifts the political landscape towards more conservative stances.