Can Climate Shocks Predict Political Unrest? The Surprising Link Between El Niño and African Conflicts
"New research reveals how climate patterns like El Niño can influence political violence in Africa, offering potential for early warnings in agrarian societies. Uncover the insights and implications."
Food is essential for survival, yet many communities don't produce enough of their own. Instead, they rely on trade, which ideally happens through negotiation. But in regions where the rule of law is weak, these negotiations can break down, leading to desperate and violent measures. Conflict over resources, especially food, has long plagued developing nations.
Historically, limited access to food has ignited conflicts and triggered wars. While scarcity is often blamed, localized abundance can also cause targeting of one group by another. Military strategies throughout history have capitalized on harvest seasons to capture resources and weaken local populations.
New research sheds light on a critical connection: how climate shocks during crop-growing seasons impact political violence. By focusing on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in Africa, scientists are uncovering patterns that could revolutionize early warning systems for conflict.
The Climate Connection: How ENSO Affects Conflict
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a major driver of global weather patterns, plays a significant role. ENSO involves fluctuations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, impacting weather conditions across the globe. These effects are particularly pronounced in agriculture, especially in lower-income countries where farming is a cornerstone of the economy. Understanding whether ENSO events contribute to agrarian conflict requires examining a causal chain: ENSO affects weather, weather affects agricultural output, and agricultural output affects conflict.
- El Niño's Impact: A 1°C warming of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific—a proxy for a moderate El Niño event—can reduce political violence by approximately three percent during the early postharvest season in exposed locations. This effect diminishes as the crop year progresses, but can be five times larger during strong El Niño events, particularly in areas like Southern Africa and the Sahel.
- La Niña's Reversal: Conversely, a La Niña event, the counterpart to El Niño, has the opposite effect, increasing conflict in exposed croplands during the early postharvest season.
Implications for Policy and the Future
These findings offer critical implications for policymakers, particularly in establishing early warning systems for political violence in ENSO-affected regions of Africa. Given ENSO events can be predicted months in advance, understanding their effects on conflict dynamics in African croplands can help local and international organizations make informed, timely adjustments to peacemaking activities. Climate change is expected to intensify ENSO cycles, resulting in stronger, more frequent events and more drastic changes in agricultural production and incomes. The complex relationship between ENSO events and conflict dynamics requires continuous monitoring and adaptive strategies to protect vulnerable populations.