Surreal illustration of the impact of climate on global stability

Can Climate Predict Conflict? How El Niño Impacts Global Stability

Theo Raines in Climate & Environment August 2025 • 4 min read.

"New research reveals the surprising connection between climate patterns like El Niño and political violence, offering potential for early warnings and more effective peacemaking."

In an era defined by climate change and geopolitical instability, understanding the links between these global challenges has never been more critical. Recent research sheds light on a surprising connection: the influence of climate phenomena, specifically the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), on political violence. This connection could revolutionize how we approach conflict prevention and peacemaking efforts.

El Niño and its counterpart, La Niña, are characterized by fluctuations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. These seemingly isolated oceanic events trigger a cascade of effects across the globe, altering weather patterns, impacting agricultural yields, and, according to new evidence, influencing the dynamics of political conflict. The implications of these findings are far-reaching, suggesting that climate data could serve as an early warning system for identifying and mitigating potential hotspots of violence.

This article explores the groundbreaking research uncovering the relationship between ENSO events and political instability, particularly in agrarian societies. By examining the mechanisms through which climate shocks affect conflict, and considering the potential for leveraging climate predictions to enhance peacemaking efforts, we gain valuable insights into navigating the complex challenges of our interconnected world.

The Climate-Conflict Connection: How ENSO Triggers Political Instability

Surreal illustration of the impact of climate on global stability

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate pattern centered in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Its most recognizable feature is the fluctuation in sea surface temperatures, leading to El Niño (warmer temperatures) and La Niña (cooler temperatures) events. However, the impact of ENSO extends far beyond ocean temperatures, influencing weather systems worldwide through a phenomenon known as teleconnections.

Teleconnections link ENSO events to altered precipitation patterns and temperature fluctuations in distant regions. For agricultural societies, these shifts can be devastating, leading to crop failures and economic hardship. The study highlights that a 1°C warming in sea surface temperature, indicative of a moderate El Niño event, can reduce political violence by approximately three percent in exposed locations with crop agriculture during the early postharvest season.

Reduced Harvests, Reduced Conflict: The research suggests that El Niño-induced weather adversity during crop-growing seasons decreases political violence shortly after harvest, potentially due to smaller surpluses of food or cash available for perpetrators.
La Niña's Opposite Effect: Conversely, La Niña events, which bring cooler temperatures, can increase conflict in the same exposed croplands during the early postharvest season.
Predictive Potential: Because ENSO events can be predicted several months in advance, these findings offer a platform for early warnings of changes in political violence, particularly in agrarian societies.

Historical evidence supports the climate-conflict connection, with several instances of El Niño-induced droughts and famines linked to social unrest and political violence. For instance, El Niño events at the end of the 18th century brought droughts to Southern Africa and Ethiopia, while severe droughts in the 19th century contributed to civil war in Zululand. These events underscore the potential for climate shocks to exacerbate existing tensions and trigger new conflicts.

A Call to Action: Leveraging Climate Data for Conflict Prevention

The research presented here offers a compelling case for integrating climate data into conflict prediction and prevention strategies. By understanding how ENSO events influence political violence, policymakers and international organizations can proactively address potential hotspots of instability. Early warning systems based on climate predictions can enable targeted interventions, such as providing economic support to vulnerable communities, mediating disputes, and strengthening local governance structures.

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This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2311.1637,

Title: Climate, Crops, And Postharvest Conflict

Subject: econ.gn q-fin.ec

Authors: David Ubilava

Published: 27-11-2023

Everything You Need To Know

How does El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) relate to political violence and conflict?

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), specifically El Niño and La Niña events, influences political violence by affecting weather patterns and agricultural yields, particularly in agrarian societies. Research indicates that El Niño, characterized by warmer sea surface temperatures, can temporarily reduce political violence shortly after harvest, while La Niña, with cooler temperatures, can increase conflict. These climate events serve as potential indicators for anticipating changes in political violence.

What are teleconnections and how do they link El Niño and La Niña to global weather patterns?

Teleconnections are the pathways through which El Niño and La Niña influence weather systems in distant regions. These oceanic events alter precipitation patterns and temperature fluctuations globally. For example, El Niño events are linked to droughts in Southern Africa and Ethiopia, demonstrating how changes in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean can trigger cascading effects worldwide.

Can climate data really be used to predict and prevent political violence?

Yes, the research suggests that climate data, particularly related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, can be integrated into conflict prediction and prevention strategies. By understanding how El Niño and La Niña influence political violence, policymakers and international organizations can proactively address potential hotspots of instability. Early warning systems based on climate predictions can enable targeted interventions, such as providing economic support to vulnerable communities, mediating disputes, and strengthening local governance structures.

What impact do El Niño and La Niña events have on crop agriculture, and how does this affect political violence?

El Niño events, with warmer sea surface temperatures, induce weather adversity that can decrease political violence shortly after harvest due to smaller food or cash surpluses. Conversely, La Niña events, which bring cooler temperatures, can increase conflict in exposed croplands during the early postharvest season. The impact is substantial, a 1°C warming in sea surface temperature during a moderate El Niño event can reduce political violence by approximately three percent in exposed locations with crop agriculture during the early postharvest season.

Besides the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are there other climate phenomena that can influence global political stability and conflict?

While the research specifically focuses on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its influence on political stability, it suggests that any climate phenomena impacting agricultural yields and economic stability in vulnerable regions could potentially influence conflict. The core mechanism involves climate shocks affecting resources and livelihoods, thus exacerbating existing tensions. Further research could explore the impact of other climate patterns like the Indian Ocean Dipole or the North Atlantic Oscillation on political violence, particularly in regions heavily dependent on agriculture and natural resources. Understanding such connections will pave the way for innovative approaches to conflict prevention and resolution.