Navigating Brazil's Tax Reform: A Maze of Forms and Potential Benefits

Unpacking Brazil's Tax Reform: Will It Ease the Burden on Consumers?

Lena Voss in Politics & Policy August 2025 • 4 min read.

"A deep dive into the potential impacts of indirect tax reforms in Brazil, inspired by PEC 45/2019, and whether it will truly benefit families across different income levels."

After decades of debate, Brazil is on the cusp of a significant tax reform. Constitutional Amendment No. 132 (EC_132/2023), stemming from Proposed Constitutional Amendment No. 45 of 2019 (PEC 45/2019), aims to reshape the nation's consumption tax system. The core idea is to simplify the current structure by replacing five indirect taxes—ICMS, PIS, Cofins, IPI, and ISS—with a dual Value Added Tax (VAT).

This new system would comprise a Contribution on Goods and Services (IBS) at the federal level and a separate IBS for states and municipalities. Additionally, a Selective Tax (IS) would target goods and services deemed harmful to health and the environment. The initial proposal envisioned a uniform VAT rate across nearly all goods and services, except those with negative externalities like alcohol and tobacco. To mitigate potential regressivity, a "cashback" system was proposed to refund taxes to low-income families.

However, the approved version of PEC 45 incorporates differentiated treatment, including exemptions and reduced rates for specific sectors. This raises critical questions about the actual redistributive effects of the reform and its potential impact on the tax burden for various segments of Brazilian society.

Understanding the Proposed Changes: A Closer Look at Brazil's Tax Overhaul

Navigating Brazil's Tax Reform: A Maze of Forms and Potential Benefits

The current Brazilian tax system is notoriously complex, featuring a web of indirect taxes with varying bases. To analyze the potential impacts of reform, researchers often rely on effective tax rates that capture the true burden on consumers. These rates are calculated using input-output models, considering government revenue and intersectoral relationships.

A recent study utilized effective tax rates estimated from the 2015 Input-Output Matrix to assess the effects of proposed reforms. The study combined these tax rates with microdata from the 2017-2018 Household Budget Survey (POF) to simulate the impact on families across different income levels.

Uniform VAT (Reform 1): This scenario replaces all existing indirect taxes with a single VAT rate of 25.8% on all goods and services.
VAT with Selective Tax and Cashback (Reform 2): Inspired by the initial PEC 45 proposal, this model features a uniform VAT of 26.7%, a selective tax on harmful goods, and a cashback system for low-income households.
Differentiated Rates (Reform 3): This scenario mirrors the approved EC 132/2023, including a standard VAT rate of 33.2%, zero rates for a basic food basket, and reduced rates for specific sectors like education and healthcare.
Replacing Food Basket Exemption (Reform 4): This model builds on Reform 3 but replaces the zero rate on the basic food basket with a fixed cash transfer to all individuals.

The simulations assume that the overall tax burden on household consumption remains neutral, meaning the reforms do not generate additional deficits or surpluses. However, the specific rates and structures are subject to ongoing debate and complementary legislation.

The Path Forward: Navigating the Complexities of Tax Reform

Brazil's proposed tax reforms hold the potential to reshape the nation's economic landscape. While the simulations offer valuable insights, the ultimate impact will depend on the specific details of implementing legislation and how families adapt their consumption patterns. Further research and ongoing evaluation will be crucial to ensuring that the reforms achieve their intended goals of simplification, fairness, and economic growth.

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This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2404.07651,

Title: Impacto Distributivo Potencial De Reformas Na Tributacao Indireta No Brasil: Simulacoes Baseadas Na Pec 45/2019

Subject: econ.gn q-fin.ec

Authors: Rozane Bezerra Dde Siqueira, Jose Ricardo Bezerra Nogueira, Carlos Feitosa Luna

Published: 11-04-2024

Everything You Need To Know

What is the main goal of the tax reform in Brazil, and what taxes will it replace?

The primary objective of the tax reform, stemming from PEC 45/2019 and implemented through EC 132/2023, is to simplify Brazil's complex tax system. It aims to replace five existing indirect taxes: ICMS, PIS, Cofins, IPI, and ISS. These will be consolidated into a dual Value Added Tax (VAT) system. This will include the Contribution on Goods and Services (IBS) at the federal level, a separate IBS for states and municipalities, and a Selective Tax (IS) for harmful goods and services.

How does the proposed tax reform in Brazil intend to address the potential for regressivity, and what are the implications of different approaches like "cashback"?

The reform seeks to mitigate regressivity, which means preventing the tax burden from disproportionately affecting low-income families. The initial proposal of PEC 45 included a "cashback" system. This system would refund taxes to low-income households. However, the approved version, EC 132/2023, incorporates differentiated treatment like exemptions and reduced rates. The implications of different approaches include how they affect the tax burden across various income levels and the complexity of implementation. A cashback system can be effective but may be administratively complex. Differentiated rates, while targeted, can create complexities.

What are the key differences between the four reform scenarios discussed, and how do they impact the effective tax rates and consumer burden?

The reform scenarios vary in their approach to VAT rates, exemptions, and the inclusion of a "cashback" system. Reform 1, the Uniform VAT, proposes a single VAT rate across all goods and services. Reform 2, VAT with Selective Tax and Cashback, adds a selective tax on harmful goods and a cashback system. Reform 3, Differentiated Rates, reflects the approved EC 132/2023, including a standard VAT, zero rates for a basic food basket, and reduced rates for sectors like education and healthcare. Reform 4, Replacing Food Basket Exemption, replaces the zero rate with a fixed cash transfer. The differences impact effective tax rates, potentially altering the tax burden borne by different consumer segments based on their consumption patterns.

How are "effective tax rates" calculated in the context of Brazil's tax reform, and what role do input-output models play?

Effective tax rates are used to analyze the true tax burden on consumers within the tax reform context. Researchers use these rates to capture the impact of indirect taxes, considering their complex structure. Input-output models are used to estimate these rates. They consider government revenue and intersectoral relationships. The 2015 Input-Output Matrix was used with microdata from the 2017-2018 Household Budget Survey (POF) to simulate the impact of proposed reforms across different income levels.

Beyond the specific reforms, what factors will ultimately determine the success of Brazil's tax reform in achieving its goals of simplification, fairness, and economic growth?

While the proposed reforms provide a framework for change, their success hinges on various factors. Firstly, the specific details of implementing legislation will shape the final outcomes. Secondly, how families adapt their consumption patterns plays a crucial role in distributing the tax burden. Finally, ongoing evaluation and further research are essential to ensure the reforms achieve their intended goals of simplification, fairness, and economic growth. The success is also impacted by the effectiveness of the IBS, IS, and any "cashback" programs or differentiated rates in place.