Football stadium transforming into a giant chessboard, representing the shift to Elo-based rankings.

Level Up Your Game: Why Football Needs an Elo-Based Ranking Revolution

Kai Mendoza in Culture & Society December 2025 • 4 min read.

"Ditch the old UEFA coefficients and embrace a smarter, fairer system for ranking European football clubs. Here's how the Elo rating could change the game."

In the high-stakes world of European club football, accurate team rankings aren't just for bragging rights—they determine tournament seedings, influence financial distributions, and ultimately shape competitive balance. For years, the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) has relied on its club coefficient system. However, a growing chorus of voices is questioning whether this is the most effective approach.

Imagine a system that not only considers past performance in European competitions but also factors in the strength of opponents, recent form, and even national league results. This is the promise of the Elo rating system, a method widely used in chess and other sports, now knocking on the door of European football. The key question: Can the Elo rating system improve upon the existing UEFA club coefficient in predicting team success and ensuring fairer tournaments?

The UEFA Champions League, one of the most watched sports tournaments in the world, is set to implement significant reforms in the 2024/25 season. The traditional group stage will be replaced with a single league format where each of the 36 teams will play eight matches. In such a structure it becomes even more vital to forecast accurately the performance of teams. It's time to investigate if taking games played in the national leagues into account would improve the predictions. According to logistic regression models, a variant of the Elo method provides a higher accuracy in terms of explanatory power in the Champions League matches.

UEFA Club Coefficient: A System Under Scrutiny

Football stadium transforming into a giant chessboard, representing the shift to Elo-based rankings.

The UEFA club coefficient, calculated based on a team's performance in European competitions over the previous five seasons, is the cornerstone of team rankings. This system determines which teams are seeded into which pots for the Champions League and Europa League draws, influencing their path through the tournament.

However, the UEFA coefficient faces criticism for its limitations. It primarily focuses on European competition results, often neglecting the significance of domestic league performance. A team excelling in their national league might find itself unfairly lower in the UEFA rankings if they had a poor run in Europe a few seasons prior. This can lead to unbalanced group stages and potentially disadvantage stronger teams.

Limited Scope: Primarily focuses on UEFA competition results, neglecting domestic performance.
Delayed Reflection: Based on the past five seasons, potentially not reflecting current team strength.
Equal Weighting: All wins and draws in group stages increase the rating by the same amount.

According to a recent study the UEFA club coefficient itself does not contribute positively to success in this tournament. In fact, some studies even suggest that seeding didn't have any effect on the performance of teams.

The Future of Football Rankings: Embracing Elo and Beyond

The winds of change are blowing through European football. As UEFA prepares for its revamped Champions League format, the time is ripe to reconsider the methods used to rank and seed teams. The Elo rating system offers a compelling alternative, one that promises greater accuracy, fairness, and a more data-driven approach to the beautiful game.

About this Article -

This article was crafted using a human-AI hybrid and collaborative approach. AI assisted our team with initial drafting, research insights, identifying key questions, and image generation. Our human editors guided topic selection, defined the angle, structured the content, ensured factual accuracy and relevance, refined the tone, and conducted thorough editing to deliver helpful, high-quality information.See our About page for more information.

This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: 10.1080/24748668.2023.2274221,

Title: Club Coefficients In The Uefa Champions League: Time For Shift To An Elo-Based Formula

Subject: stat.ap econ.em

Authors: László Csató

Published: 18-04-2023

Everything You Need To Know

What is the main problem with the UEFA club coefficient?

The UEFA club coefficient has several limitations. It primarily focuses on a team's performance in European competitions over the past five seasons, often neglecting domestic league performance. This can lead to inaccurate rankings where a team excelling in their national league might be unfairly ranked lower if they previously had a poor run in Europe. Additionally, the system doesn't fully reflect current team strength because it is based on past performance, and it gives equal weight to all wins and draws in group stages, not accounting for the quality of the opponents or the context of the match.

How can the Elo rating system improve football team rankings?

The Elo rating system offers several advantages over the UEFA club coefficient. It considers factors such as the strength of opponents, recent form, and national league results, providing a more holistic and accurate assessment of a team's current strength. By incorporating these elements, the Elo method can potentially lead to more accurate predictions of team success, fairer tournament seedings, and a better fan experience. Logistic regression models suggest that Elo can improve accuracy in predicting Champions League match outcomes, demonstrating its potential to enhance the ranking system.

Why are accurate team rankings so important in European club football?

Accurate team rankings are critical in European club football for several reasons. They determine tournament seedings, influencing a team's path through competitions like the Champions League and Europa League. Rankings also affect financial distributions, which can significantly impact a club's resources and ability to compete. Ultimately, fair and accurate rankings contribute to competitive balance, ensuring that stronger teams are rewarded and that tournaments are more exciting and unpredictable.

What are the specific criticisms of the UEFA club coefficient as outlined in the article?

The UEFA club coefficient faces criticism for several specific limitations. First, its limited scope focuses primarily on UEFA competition results, neglecting the significance of domestic league performance. Second, it offers a delayed reflection of a team's current strength because it's based on the past five seasons. Finally, it assigns equal weighting to all wins and draws in group stages, failing to account for the varying quality of opponents or the specific context of each match.

How is the revamped Champions League format in 2024/25 relevant to the discussion of team ranking systems?

The revamped Champions League format in the 2024/25 season, which replaces the traditional group stage with a single league format, makes accurate team rankings even more vital. With 36 teams playing eight matches, the ability to forecast team performance becomes crucial for creating balanced and competitive matchups. This format emphasizes the need for a ranking system that accurately reflects team strength, such as the Elo rating system, to ensure fair seedings and enhance the overall fan experience in this new structure.