Is Your Heart at Risk? A New Brazilian Tool to Predict and Prevent Cardiovascular Disease
"Adapting cutting-edge science to understand and manage heart health in Brazil."
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide, including in Brazil, where it significantly burdens the public health system. Given the substantial healthcare costs associated with CVD, there is a growing need for tools to efficiently assess the potential of various interventions aimed at preventing primary CVD events.
While new interventions for CVD are continuously being developed, a platform to evaluate their effectiveness within the specific context of the Brazilian population has been lacking. To address this gap, researchers have adapted a well-validated Scottish CVD Policy Model to the Brazilian setting. This adaptation aims to provide a more accurate and reliable means of predicting CVD risks and evaluating the impact of preventive interventions.
This article explores the development and adaptation of this new analytical decision model, highlighting its potential to improve CVD prevention strategies in Brazil. By understanding how this tool works and its implications, individuals can gain valuable insights into managing their own heart health risks and making informed decisions about preventative care.
Brazil’s Cardiovascular Data
The World Heart Observatory provides a Brazil country profile covering cardiovascular disease data, risk factors, mortality, health systems, and heart-health indicators. The 2023 publication *Cardiovascular Statistics – Brazil* is an annual compilation of epidemiological data and research, drawing on official Brazilian Ministry of Health and other governmental statistics as well as estimates from the Global Burden of Disease project, coordinated by IHME at the University of Washington. Together, these resources offer ways to examine the country’s cardiovascular burden, though the supplied source descriptions do not provide a specific current estimate of deaths or disease prevalence.
Guidelines and Prevention in Brazil
The Brazilian Society of Cardiology’s 2019 Cardiovascular Prevention Guideline updates strategies for addressing classical cardiovascular risk factors and discusses newer concepts. Cardiovascular diseases remain a major burden in Brazil: a 2022 review reports nearly 400,000 CVD deaths in 2019, with myocardial infarction accounting for 23.9% and stroke for 14.1% of those deaths. The provided sources describe the guideline’s scope and the scale of the problem, but do not specify particular limitations of standard risk-prediction methods.
A Longstanding National Burden
A 2016 *Circulation* review reports that cardiovascular disease had been Brazil’s leading cause of mortality since the 1960s and accounted for a substantial share of hospitalizations. In 2011, CVD was responsible for 31% of all deaths; ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease made up 31% and 30% of CVD causes, respectively. The Brazilian Society of Cardiology’s timeline states that, in 2020, cardiovascular diseases affected more than 14 million Brazilians and caused more than 380,000 deaths annually.
Understanding the New CVD Prediction Model
The core of this new tool lies in its ability to predict an individual's risk of experiencing a primary CVD event, such as coronary heart disease or stroke. By inputting various risk factors, the model estimates the likelihood of these events occurring over a specific period. What sets this model apart is its foundation in real-world data and its adaptation to the unique characteristics of the Brazilian population.
- Defining Target Data: Identifying key health parameters, such as life expectancy and the incidence of specific CVD events, relevant to the Brazilian population.
- Assessing Need for Calibration: Comparing predictions from the original Scottish model with observed data in Brazil to identify discrepancies.
- Calibration: Adjusting the model's parameters to ensure its predictions closely match the observed data for Brazilians.
- Risk Profiles: Defining relevant risk factor combinations.
Recent Evidence on Prevention and Trends
A 2025 systematic review examines policy models for preventive interventions in cardiometabolic diseases, including cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes, which the review describes as major contributors to illness, mortality, and rising healthcare costs. A separate 2025 study reports long-term declines in ischemic heart disease and stroke mortality rates across Brazilian states from 1996 to 2019, while highlighting substantial disparities. A 2024 real-world study using routinely collected data from digitized primary care found very low statin use for primary prevention among people with cardiovascular risk enhancers in Brazil; use was associated with sociodemographic factors and comorbidities.
Limits of the Available Comparisons
The listed comparative-analysis sources do not provide a direct comparison of cardiovascular risk-prediction tools or prevention strategies in Brazil. One source concerns health-adjusted life expectancy and potential gains from eliminating stroke and risk factors in Korea. Another describes using Pollard’s actuarial method to decompose life-expectancy contributions by age and disease groups across selected countries in five-year intervals. The remaining sources concern life-expectancy prediction in an unspecified country and losses associated with risk factors across Russia’s 82 federal subjects, so they do not establish a Brazil-specific comparison.
Empowering Brazilians to Take Control of Their Heart Health
This adapted CVD model represents a significant step forward in empowering healthcare professionals and individuals in Brazil to proactively manage heart health. By providing a more accurate assessment of CVD risks, the model can help guide targeted interventions and lifestyle modifications to prevent primary events.
Making Data Useful for Communities
The 2025 iCardio article presents Brazilian population-based real-world data initiatives as a way to measure cardiovascular care and support effective use of resources in universal health systems such as Brazil’s Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS). A 2024 study of Brazilian municipalities describes an approach to assess how CVD mortality varies with municipality size, offering a more granular way to explore urbanization’s effects on cardiovascular health over time. These sources emphasize the value of real-world and locally detailed information for understanding how cardiovascular outcomes vary across settings.
While this new tool holds great promise, it's essential to recognize that it is just one component of a comprehensive approach to CVD prevention. Maintaining a healthy lifestyle, including regular exercise, a balanced diet, and avoiding smoking, remains crucial for reducing your risk.
As research continues and more data becomes available, the model will be further refined to enhance its accuracy and applicability. In the meantime, talk to your healthcare provider about your individual risk factors and how this new tool can help you make informed decisions about your heart health.