Maps of the Americas aligning to symbolize economic convergence

Is Economic Convergence Across the Americas Possible? A Survival Analysis

Avery Sinclair in Business & Economy July 2025 • 4 min read.

"Discover how survival analysis reveals the hidden factors influencing GDP growth in the Americas and what it means for the region's economic future."

In today's economic landscape, understanding how countries achieve specific levels of economic growth is more critical than ever. A recent study examines the economic trajectories of 33 countries in the Americas, providing insights into what drives their success or stalls their progress.

The research uses a sophisticated approach called survival analysis to explore the time it takes for these countries to achieve a 5% increase in GDP per capita. This method allows researchers to consider various factors, including vulnerabilities and risks, offering a comprehensive view of the challenges and opportunities each nation faces.

By integrating machine learning algorithms and economic interpretation, this study contributes to both theoretical advancements in economic literature and the development of more effective policies aimed at promoting sustained economic growth. It's a deep dive into the economic dynamics of the Americas, offering valuable lessons for policymakers and stakeholders.

Decoding Economic Growth: What Factors Really Matter?

Maps of the Americas aligning to symbolize economic convergence

At the heart of the study is an effort to understand the intricate relationships between various factors and the time it takes for a country to achieve a 5% increase in GDP per capita. The researchers considered a range of key variables to capture multifaceted vulnerabilities:

To analyze these factors, the study employs advanced statistical techniques, with a particular focus on survival analysis. This approach is designed to provide a comprehensive understanding of the temporal dimensions of economic growth, revealing how different variables interact over time to influence economic outcomes.

Vul_Inherent: Captures inherent vulnerabilities like proximity to global markets and landlocked status.
Vul_Fragility_Democracy: Focuses on the stability of democratic institutions.
Vul_Human Rights: Assesses equal treatment and absence of discrimination.
Natural Risk: Assesses disasters as occurrences or situations that surpass local capacity.
Commercial Risk: This variable captures the commercial risks associated with countries.
Financial Risk: Focused on economic stability.
Endogenous Risk: Examining internal economic factors.

Charting a Path to Economic Convergence: Key Takeaways

This study offers valuable insights into the factors influencing economic growth in the Americas, providing a foundation for informed policymaking and strategic decision-making. By understanding the complex interplay of risks, vulnerabilities, and capabilities, countries can tailor their policies to address specific challenges and leverage their strengths, ultimately charting a path towards sustainable economic convergence.

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This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2404.04282,

Title: Analyzing Economic Convergence Across The Americas: A Survival Analysis Approach To Gdp Per Capita Trajectories

Subject: econ.gn cs.lg q-fin.ec q-fin.st

Authors: Diego Vallarino

Published: 03-04-2024

Everything You Need To Know

What is survival analysis, and how is it used in the study of economic growth in the Americas?

Survival analysis is a statistical method used to analyze the time it takes for an event to occur. In this context, it's used to explore how long it takes for countries in the Americas to achieve a 5% increase in GDP per capita. This approach helps researchers understand the factors that influence a country's economic growth trajectory, considering various risks and vulnerabilities. The study leverages this method to provide a comprehensive view of the challenges and opportunities faced by each nation, offering insights into what drives their success or stalls their progress.

What are the key factors considered in the analysis of economic growth, and how do they influence a country's economic trajectory?

The study considers several key variables to capture multifaceted vulnerabilities. These include: * **Vul_Inherent**: Captures inherent vulnerabilities like proximity to global markets and landlocked status. * **Vul_Fragility_Democracy**: Focuses on the stability of democratic institutions. * **Vul_Human Rights**: Assesses equal treatment and absence of discrimination. * **Natural Risk**: Assesses disasters as occurrences or situations that surpass local capacity. * **Commercial Risk**: This variable captures the commercial risks associated with countries. * **Financial Risk**: Focused on economic stability. * **Endogenous Risk**: Examining internal economic factors. These factors interact in complex ways, influencing a country's ability to achieve sustained economic growth. For example, a country with high **Vul_Inherent** might face challenges in accessing global markets, potentially slowing its GDP growth.

What are the different machine learning models used in the study, and how are they evaluated?

The study evaluates the effectiveness of various machine learning survival models, including Cox, Kernel SVM, DeepSurv, Survival Random Forest, and MTLR models. These models are compared using the concordance index to determine their predictive capabilities. The concordance index helps identify the most accurate model for projecting the time until a country reaches the 5% GDP per capita increase. This comparison allows the researchers to determine which model best fits the data and provides the most reliable insights into the factors influencing economic growth.

How can the findings of this study be used to promote economic convergence in the Americas?

The study offers valuable insights into the factors influencing economic growth, providing a foundation for informed policymaking and strategic decision-making. By understanding the complex interplay of risks, vulnerabilities, and capabilities, countries can tailor their policies to address specific challenges and leverage their strengths. For instance, countries with high **Vul_Fragility_Democracy** can focus on strengthening their democratic institutions to create a more stable environment for economic growth. Addressing **Natural Risk** through disaster preparedness and mitigation strategies can also protect economic progress. Ultimately, the goal is to chart a path towards sustainable economic convergence by aligning policies with the unique circumstances of each nation.

What is the significance of considering both vulnerabilities and risks in understanding economic growth?

Considering both vulnerabilities and risks offers a more comprehensive understanding of the factors that affect economic growth. Vulnerabilities, such as **Vul_Inherent** or **Vul_Human Rights**, highlight inherent weaknesses that can impede progress. Risks, like **Natural Risk**, **Commercial Risk**, and **Financial Risk**, represent potential threats that can disrupt economic stability. By analyzing both, the study provides a nuanced view of the challenges countries face. This allows policymakers to develop targeted strategies that not only mitigate risks but also address underlying vulnerabilities, fostering a more resilient and sustainable economic environment.