Community members planting seeds of peace in a city garden.

Cure Violence: Does It Really Work? New Evidence from New York City

"A deep dive into the effectiveness of Cure Violence programs in reducing gun violence, with surprising findings from the Big Apple."


Gun violence remains a pressing concern in the United States, despite recent declines from pandemic highs. In response, cities are increasingly turning to community violence intervention (CVI) programs like Cure Violence, which aims to reduce shootings by mediating conflicts, changing community norms, and treating high-risk individuals. But does it really work? That's the question researchers are tackling with increasing rigor.

A new study analyzing New York City's Cure Violence initiative provides compelling evidence of its effectiveness. Using data on NYC shootings from 2006 to 2023, researchers assessed the program's impact using both difference-in-differences and event study models, offering a robust evaluation of its real-world effects.

This article delves into the key findings of the Cure Violence study, exploring its impact on shooting rates, cost-benefit ratio, and broader policy implications. We'll examine how this innovative approach is reshaping the landscape of violence prevention and what it means for communities across the country.

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What the Available Data Actually Describe

The source material provided for this subsection does not contain statistics on the Cure Violence program in New York City; the sources returned are unrelated subjects that share the 'cure' name. One source describes the English rock band The Cure, formed in Crawley in 1976 by Robert Smith and Lol Tolhurst. Another defines a cure as a substance or procedure that resolves a medical condition, potentially including medication, surgery, or lifestyle change. A third is CURE Auto Insurance, which reports insuring more than a million drivers. Because none of these sources addresses the program's impact, no figures on Cure Violence outcomes can be reported from the available material.

No Methodological Detail in the Listed Source

The only source listed for this subsection is The Cure's official YouTube channel, which hosts the Tim Pope-directed music video 'Boys Don't Cry.' This source concerns an English rock band rather than the Cure Violence program. As a result, it offers no information on the standard methods, accepted practices, or limitations of violence-interruption programming in New York City. Any assessment of the program's approach therefore cannot be grounded in the provided source material.

Awaiting Sourced Historical Detail

No source material was identified for this subsection, so this paragraph offers only a general, appropriately hedged overview. The broader history of violence-prevention programs and their evaluation in American cities would typically frame a discussion of Cure Violence in New York City, but specific milestones and foundational discoveries cannot be documented here. Readers should treat this section as provisional and await properly sourced historical detail before drawing conclusions.

Cure Violence: A Community-Based Approach

Community members planting seeds of peace in a city garden.

Cure Violence operates on the principle that violence is a learned behavior that can be treated using public health strategies. By employing "credible messengers" from the community, the program aims to:

This model seeks to create lasting change by addressing the root causes of violence and fostering a culture of peace within affected neighborhoods.

  • Mediating Conflicts: Stopping disputes before they escalate into violence.
  • Treating High-Risk Individuals: Providing support and resources to those most likely to be involved in gun violence.
  • Changing Community Norms: Promoting non-violent attitudes and behaviors within the community.
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No Reviewed Studies Available

No source material was identified for this subsection, and what follows is a general framing rather than a settled review. Claims about the most recent evaluations of Cure Violence in New York City would normally rest on peer-reviewed studies or program reports, none of which is available among the sources provided. As a result, no specific findings, effect sizes, or publication details can be stated here, and any conclusions about whether the program works remain unsubstantiated by the present material.

Debate Cannot Be Documented Here

No source material was identified for this subsection, so any discussion of critiques or reported failures of Cure Violence cannot be supported by citations here. Skeptical findings and methodological criticisms would typically be weighed against studies showing positive outcomes, but neither side of that debate is documented in the available sources. This paragraph is therefore a placeholder that should be replaced with a properly cited treatment of the program's limitations and contested results.

Comparisons Remain Unsupported

No source material was identified for this subsection, so a comparison of Cure Violence with other interventions cannot be grounded in citations here. Meaningful comparative analysis would require outcome data from multiple programs, such as hospital-based violence intervention, focused deterrence, or community policing, applied under comparable conditions. Because none of that evidence is available among the provided sources, this subsection is limited to a general note that such comparisons are essential but presently unsupported.

The NYC study provides a comprehensive analysis of Cure Violence's impact, utilizing a rich dataset and rigorous statistical methods to assess its effectiveness.

The Future of Cure Violence

The NYC study adds to a growing body of evidence suggesting that community-based violence intervention programs like Cure Violence can be an effective tool for reducing gun violence. By addressing the root causes of violence and fostering community-led solutions, these programs offer a promising path towards creating safer and more peaceful neighborhoods. As policymakers continue to grapple with the challenge of gun violence, Cure Violence and similar CVI strategies deserve serious consideration as part of a comprehensive approach.

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Expert Synthesis Still Needed

No source material was identified for this subsection, meaning expert commentary on Cure Violence in New York City cannot be quoted or attributed here. A true synthesis would integrate evaluation findings, practitioner experience, and researcher interpretation to reach a balanced overall judgment. In the absence of such sources, this section indicates where authoritative commentary is needed rather than offering a substantive conclusion.

Frontiers Are Speculative Without Sources

No source material was identified for this subsection, so forward-looking claims about Cure Violence cannot be documented here. Projections about how the model might evolve, through better data collection, closer integration with health systems, or broader replication, remain speculative without a sourced evidence base. This paragraph is a placeholder that flags the need for updated research rather than a set of concrete predictions.

Structural Forces Taken as Context

No source material was identified for this subsection, so the systemic context of the program cannot be addressed with citations here. The effectiveness of any violence-interruption effort is widely understood to depend on larger structural forces such as poverty, housing instability, and access to services, but those linkages cannot be substantiated from the sources provided. Accordingly, this section is limited to a general caution that local outcomes should be interpreted within their systemic context.

Lived Experience Remains Undocumented

No source material was identified for this subsection, so individual stories and lived experiences connected to the program cannot be relayed here. Real-world impact is typically illustrated through the accounts of participants, outreach workers, and affected communities, none of which appears in the provided sources. This paragraph therefore signals that the human dimension of Cure Violence remains to be documented and should not be taken as a firsthand account.

How researchers evaluated New York City shootings

PopulationNYC shootings[1]
Duration2006-2023[1]
Comparisoncounterfactual[1]
Main outcomeshootings[1]
Effect size14% reduction in shootings[1]
Times cited2[1]

The estimated impact in shootings and social costs

  • 1,300The study estimates that about 1,300 shootings were avoided from 2012 to 2023. The authors translate that estimate into $2.45 billion in net social surplus and a benefit-cost ratio of 6.5:1.[1]
  • 14%On average, shootings were 14% lower than the study’s counterfactual estimate of what would have happened without the program.[1]

How the New York estimate compares with other evaluations

A systematic review also reported a significant reduction in shootings in Laventille, Trinidad and Tobago, while a South Bronx evaluation found larger declines in gun injuries and shooting victimizations than in East Harlem, its comparison area.[2] [3]

A New York City evaluation summary lists declines in shootings in the South Bronx and gun injuries in East New York, but those figures describe different outcomes and places from the citywide shooting estimate.[3]

The 2024 study additionally reports suggestive spillovers into nearby precincts and increasing returns as new programs opened. These findings extend the question beyond outcomes in program locations themselves.[1]

What the estimates leave unresolved

  • How much of the citywide estimate reflects changes within program precincts, and how much reflects effects in nearby areas?[1]

Methods and measures in plain language

Difference-in-differences
A method named by the study for assessing the program’s efficacy.[1]

About this Article -

Written with AI assistance from published research, and reviewed by the Mystum team. See our About page for more information.

This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2406.02459,

Title: Do Cure Violence Programs Reduce Gun Violence? Evidence From New York City

Subject: econ.gn q-fin.ec

Authors: Rachel Avram, Eric J. Koepcke, Alaa Moussawi, Melissa Nuñez

Published: 04-06-2024

Everything You Need To Know

1

What is the primary goal of the Cure Violence program?

The primary goal of the Cure Violence program is to reduce shootings by mediating conflicts, changing community norms, and treating high-risk individuals. This is achieved by employing 'credible messengers' from the community to address the root causes of violence and foster a culture of peace within affected neighborhoods. The program seeks to create lasting change by applying public health strategies to treat violence as a learned behavior, rather than a criminal act.

2

How does Cure Violence attempt to reduce gun violence in communities?

Cure Violence attempts to reduce gun violence through a three-pronged approach: mediating conflicts to stop disputes before they escalate, treating high-risk individuals by providing them with support and resources, and changing community norms by promoting non-violent attitudes and behaviors. The NYC study specifically analyzes how effectively these strategies work in reducing shootings.

3

What methods did the New York City study use to evaluate the Cure Violence initiative?

The New York City study used a rich dataset of shootings from 2006 to 2023. Researchers utilized both difference-in-differences and event study models to assess the program's impact, offering a robust evaluation of its real-world effects. These rigorous statistical methods allowed for a comprehensive analysis of Cure Violence's effectiveness in reducing gun violence within the city.

4

What are the key components of the Cure Violence model, and how do they contribute to its success?

The key components of the Cure Violence model are mediating conflicts, treating high-risk individuals, and changing community norms. Mediating conflicts involves intervening in disputes before they turn violent, thus preventing shootings. Treating high-risk individuals provides crucial support and resources to those most likely to be involved in gun violence, offering them a path away from it. Changing community norms fosters non-violent attitudes and behaviors, which helps create a safer environment where violence is less likely to occur. The success of Cure Violence hinges on the effective integration of these three components within the community setting.

5

What are the policy implications of the Cure Violence approach, and why should policymakers consider it?

The Cure Violence approach has significant policy implications because it offers a community-based violence intervention (CVI) strategy to address gun violence. The NYC study, along with other evidence, suggests that Cure Violence can be an effective tool for reducing gun violence. Policymakers should consider Cure Violence and similar CVI strategies because they offer a promising path toward creating safer neighborhoods by addressing the root causes of violence and fostering community-led solutions. As policymakers grapple with the ongoing challenge of gun violence, Cure Violence deserves serious consideration as part of a comprehensive approach to violence prevention.

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