Global Hydrogen Transport Bottleneck

Can Shipyards Keep Up? The Looming Bottleneck in Global Hydrogen Transport

Kai Mendoza in Climate & Environment July 2025 • 4 min read.

"A new study reveals potential shortages in shipyard capacity, threatening the expansion of maritime hydrogen transport. Is liquefied ammonia the answer?"

The global push to decarbonize energy systems is driving massive growth in renewable energy technologies. Yet, the most cost-effective renewable sources aren't always close to the biggest energy consumers. This is where maritime transport steps in, carrying low-carbon energy carriers like hydrogen and ammonia across the seas.

But here's the catch: can shipyards build enough specialized vessels to handle the expected surge in demand for these energy carriers? A recent study digs into this question, estimating future tanker demand based on global hydrogen projections and comparing it to historical shipyard output.

The findings reveal a potential bottleneck on the horizon, particularly if the world relies too heavily on liquefied hydrogen. This raises critical questions about how to overcome these limitations and ensure the smooth scaling up of maritime hydrogen transport.

The Bottleneck is Real: What the Study Found

The study highlights a few key concerns: first, a potential transport bottleneck could emerge between 2033 and 2039 if liquefied hydrogen is the primary energy carrier. Second, the concentration of suitable shipyards in East Asia raises diversification worries.

If relying exclusively on liquid hydrogen, current shipyard capacity won't be able to produce enough vessels in the required time frame. Imagine trying to pour a gallon of water through a straw – that's essentially the problem this study is highlighting.

East Asia Dominance: The study pinpoints only 14 shipyards capable of constructing these specialized vessels, and they're largely concentrated in East Asia. This lack of geographical diversity creates vulnerabilities.
Capacity Crunch: The analysis projects a potential shortage of up to 53 million cubic meters in transport capacity by 2035 if the world relies solely on liquefied hydrogen.
Container Ship Competition: Increasing demand for standard container vessels could further strain shipyard capacity, hindering the maritime hydrogen transport scale-up.

What's causing this bottleneck? The construction of these specialized tankers is complex and time-consuming. If demand surges too quickly, shipyards simply won't be able to keep up, leading to delays and hindering the widespread adoption of hydrogen as a clean energy source.

Avoiding the Impasse: Solutions for a Smooth Transition

The study isn't all doom and gloom. It also points to potential solutions. Increasing local hydrogen production, utilizing pipelines, or embracing liquefied ammonia as an energy carrier could circumvent the bottleneck. Liquefied ammonia offers a particularly promising alternative, as it may be easier to transport and handle than pure hydrogen.

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This article is based on research published under:

DOI-LINK: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2403.09272,

Title: Global Shipyard Capacities Limiting The Ramp-Up Of Global Hydrogen Transport

Subject: econ.gn q-fin.ec

Authors: Maximilian Stargardt, David Kress, Heidi Heinrichs, Jörn-Christian Meyer, Jochen Linßen, Grit Walther, Detlef Stolten

Published: 14-03-2024

Everything You Need To Know

What is the main concern regarding the global hydrogen transport, according to the study?

The primary concern is a potential bottleneck in the maritime transport of hydrogen. The study indicates that if the world relies heavily on liquefied hydrogen, the existing shipyard capacity might not be sufficient to build the required specialized vessels between 2033 and 2039. This capacity crunch could delay or hinder the widespread adoption of hydrogen as a clean energy source, impacting global decarbonization plans.

Why is the concentration of shipyards in East Asia a potential problem for the maritime hydrogen transport?

The geographical concentration of suitable shipyards, primarily in East Asia, creates vulnerabilities. This lack of diversity means that if there are disruptions or increased demand, the entire global transport system could be affected. The study pinpoints that only 14 shipyards are capable of constructing specialized vessels needed for hydrogen transport. This reliance on a specific region poses risks to the smooth scaling up of maritime hydrogen transport.

How does the demand for standard container ships impact the scaling up of maritime hydrogen transport?

Increasing demand for standard container vessels can further strain shipyard capacity. Shipyards have finite resources and production capabilities. When they are occupied with building container ships, it reduces their ability to construct the specialized tankers required for hydrogen transport. This competition for shipyard resources contributes to the potential bottleneck, making it harder to meet the growing needs of hydrogen transport.

What are the alternative solutions to avoid the bottleneck in maritime hydrogen transport, as suggested by the study?

The study suggests several solutions to avoid the transport bottleneck. These include increasing local hydrogen production, utilizing pipelines for transport, and embracing liquefied ammonia as an energy carrier. Liquefied ammonia is highlighted as a promising alternative because it might be easier to transport and handle than pure hydrogen. Implementing these solutions could help circumvent the capacity limitations and ensure a smoother transition to hydrogen as a clean energy source.

Why is liquefied ammonia considered a promising alternative to liquefied hydrogen for maritime transport?

Liquefied ammonia is considered a promising alternative to liquefied hydrogen because it may be easier to transport and handle. The study points out the challenges associated with liquefied hydrogen, including the potential for a transport bottleneck due to limited shipyard capacity. Liquefied ammonia could potentially bypass some of these issues, offering a more readily available and manageable option for the maritime transport of low-carbon energy carriers. This could accelerate the adoption of clean energy sources and facilitate global decarbonization efforts.